The growth slowdown in late 2013, attributable in part to an appreciating exchange rate and budget tightening, is expected to be only temporary. The economy will be buoyed by a gradually improving external environment, the benefit of which should be amplified by expanding gas production and persistently low interest rates. With growth picking up to 3½ per cent in 2015, unemployment should remain at a low level.
Absent any inflationary strains, an accomodative monetary policy is still needed to sustain demand and moderate the impacts of currency appreciation and budget deficit reduction. But the risks of overheating in the real estate market remain considerable. Fiscal consolidation should continue, barring a significant slowdown in activity. However, this process should rely more heavily on boosting revenue, including a streamlining and reduction of certain tax exemptions.
Note: All data definitions based on internationally comparable standards and may differ in specific cases from common national definitions.