Reducing the vulnerability of economies to crises and strengthening their capacity to absorb and overcome severe shocks while supporting strong growth -- that is strengthening economic resilience -- is a key policy priority. The Economic Resilience work stream aims at providing a systematic and holistic framework, including a set of indicators, to help governments identify vulnerabilities to shocks and crises early on so as to reduce their likelihood and economic cost. The findings arising from this work stream will be used to strengthen macro and structural policies surveillance.
“Economic Resilience: A New Set of Vulnerability Indicators for OECD Countries” (No. 1249)
By Oliver Röhn, Aida Caldera Sánchez, Mikkel Hermansen and Morten Rasmussen
This paper discusses the source and nature of potential vulnerabilities that can lead to costly economic crises and then proposes a new dataset of more than 70 vulnerability indicators that could be monitored to assess country risks in OECD economies.
“Economic Resilience: The Usefulness of Early Warning Indicators in OECD Countries” (No. 1250)
By Mikkel Hermansen and Oliver Röhn
This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators proposed in Röhn et al. (2015) in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries.
“Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?” (No. 1251)
By Aida Caldera Sánchez, Morten Rasmussen and Oliver Röhn
This paper takes stock of studies carried out primarily within, but also outside the OECD, to better understand the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in spurring or mitigating the vulnerabilities that can lead to costly shocks, as well as the role of policies in mitigating the shock impact and speeding the recovery.
Database: Vulnerability indicators (updated 17 November 2015) Excel
The updated database contains selected indicators of potential macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities for the 34 OECD countries, the BRIICS economies (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa), Colombia, Latvia, Lithuania and Costa Rica. The choice of indicators is motivated in an associated working paper, Röhn et al. (2015), which discusses the source and nature of potential vulnerabilities that can lead to costly economic crises. An application of the database can be found in Hermansen and Röhn (2015), which provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of the proposed set of vulnerability indicators in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries.
When using these data, please make the following reference:
Röhn, O., A. Caldera Sánchez, M. Hermansen and M. Rasmussen (2015), "Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1249, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Figure 1. A stylised description of the areas covered by the vulnerability indicators
Source: Röhn et al. (2015)