Economy

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), OECD, June 2012

 

OECD composite leading indicators keep pointing to diverging patterns in economic activity

Download the entire news release (PDF 115 KB)

 

11/06/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend continue to point to divergence between economies.

The CLIs for Japan, the United States and Russia continue to signal improvements in economic activity. However, the deceleration in these countries' CLIs over the last four months provides tentative signs that growth may moderate in the near term.

In France and Italy the CLIs continue to point to sluggish economic activity. The CLIs for Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point towards economic activity slightly below long-term trend.

The assessment for China and India has changed significantly since last month. For both countries, the CLIs point towards economic activity below long-term trend.

In Brazil the CLI continues to point towards a turning point with economic activity returning towards long-term trend but with a weaker intensity.

The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest some signs of resilience for ASEAN economies (Read more).

Economic activity improving in the OECD area

Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database

 

The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

 

       
 

>> 

Next publication date: 9 July 2012 - see here the 2011 release calendar

 
 

>>

Contacts
For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.

 
 

>> 

Link to previous news releases

 
 

>>

More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli