OECD composite leading indicators keep pointing to diverging patterns in economic activity
Download the entire news release (PDF 115 KB)
11/06/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend continue to point to divergence between economies.
The CLIs for Japan, the United States and Russia continue to signal improvements in economic activity. However, the deceleration in these countries' CLIs over the last four months provides tentative signs that growth may moderate in the near term.
In France and Italy the CLIs continue to point to sluggish economic activity. The CLIs for Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point towards economic activity slightly below long-term trend.
The assessment for China and India has changed significantly since last month. For both countries, the CLIs point towards economic activity below long-term trend.
In Brazil the CLI continues to point towards a turning point with economic activity returning towards long-term trend but with a weaker intensity.
The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest some signs of resilience for ASEAN economies (Read more).
Economic activity improving in the OECD area
Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database
The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".