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Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, March 2019

 

CLIs continue to anticipate easing growth momentum in most major economies

 

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11/03/2019 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to anticipate easing growth momentum in most major economies.

Easing growth momentum remains the assessment for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy and is now also anticipated in Japan, reflecting declines in the expected sales of small businesses, the stock market and hours worked in manufacturing.

On the other hand, the CLI for France now points to signs of stabilising growth momentum, driven by improvements in consumer confidence, car registrations and slower inflation. Similar signs have emerged in China.

Among other major emerging economies, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for India. In Brazil, the tentative signs of growth gaining momentum flagged in last month’s assessment have now been confirmed, while in Russia the CLI continues to anticipateeasing growth momentum.

 

 Easing growth momentum in the OECD area

 Easing growth momentum in the OECD area‌‌

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