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Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, February 2020

 

CLIs point to stable, though below-trend, growth momentum in the OECD area, but do not yet reflect the potential negative impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak

 

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10/02/2020 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, point to stable growth momentum, albeit below long-term trends, in the OECD area as a whole. However, these CLIs have been estimated using data collected before the WHO’s recent declaration of a public health emergency following the novel coronavirus outbreak in China. It is not yet possible to incorporate the potential negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global activity, particularly on supply chains and tourism linkages.

With this important caveat in mind, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for Japan, Canada and the euro area as a whole, including France, Italy, and now also Germany. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the CLIsare tentatively pointing to growth gaining momentum from below-trend.

Prior to the novel coronavirus outbreak, tentative signs of growth gaining momentum were also emerging in the industrial sector of China, but there is a high degree of uncertainty about near-term developments. Amongst other major emerging economies, the assessment anticipated growth gaining momentum in Brazil, remaining stable in Russia, and decreasing in India.

 

 Stable growth momentum and below-trend growth in the OECD area

Stable growth momentum and below-trend growth in the OECD area

 

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