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This paper investigates whether OECD countries are facing secular stagnation. Secular stagnation is defined as a situation when policy interest rates bounded at zero fail to stimulate demand sufficiently, due to low or negative neutral real interest rates and low inflation, and when ensuing prolonged and subdued growth undermines potential growth via labour hysteresis and discouraged investment.
This paper describes developments in real long-term interest rates in the main OECD economies and surveys their various determinants. Real long-term government bond yields declined from the 1980s to very low levels in the recent period, though they have not reached the historical lows of the 1970s.
The downturn in fixed investment among advanced economies from the onset of the global crisis was unusually severe, widespread and long-lasting relative to comparable episodes in the past. As a result, investment gaps are large in many countries, not only in relation to past norms but also relative to projected future steady-state levels, with a gap of 2 percentage points of GDP or more in several countries.
Six years into the crisis and a robust recovery is still distant. The global economy is continuing to expand at a moderate and uneven pace. International trade, global investment and credit are still hesitant. The threat of so-called ‘secular stagnation’ remains high, especially in Europe.
As a result of continued policy support and favourable financial conditions, global growth is expected to be somewhat more vigorous in the latter part of 2014 and into 2015. Nonetheless, the OECD’s recent Interim Assessment has revised growth projections downwards for most major economies as the recovery is turning out to be weaker than expected.
Stockbuilding main driver of OECD GDP growth in the second quarter of 2014
Mr. Angel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD, was in Washington from 9 to 12 October 2014 to attend the International Monetary Fund / World Bank Annual meetings, as well as the G20 Finance Ministerial.
Composite leading indicators point to weakening growth in the Euro area and to stable growth in most other major economies
The 34-member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development welcomed a Memorandum of Understanding between the OECD and Ukraine which will help Ukraine’s efforts to tackle corruption, strengthen its tax system and promote competitiveness.
How’s life? The answer can depend on the region in which you live. Many factors that influence people’s well-being are local issues, such as employment, access to health services, pollution and security. Policies that take into account regional differences beyond national averages can therefore have a greater impact on improving well-being for the country as a whole.
This report presents the OECD analytical framework for