The global economy is stuck in a low-growth trap that will require more coordinated and comprehensive use of fiscal, monetary and structural policies to move to a higher growth path and ensure that promises are kept to both young and old, according to the OECD’s latest Global Economic Outlook.
With 25 years of sluggish economic growth, Japan’s per capita income has fallen from a level matching the average of the top half of OECD countries in the early 1990s to 14% below that today. Weak growth, together with rapid population ageing, has driven public debt into uncharted territory. Revitalising growth is thus the top priority for the Japanese government. With the labour force shrinking more rapidly than the population, per capita output can only grow through improvements in labour productivity and labour force participation. Japan’s highly-skilled labour force and its technological leadership can help close the gap with leading OECD countries in per capita income. But broad-based structural reforms, as envisaged in the third arrow of Abenomics, are needed to allow these strengths to fully achieve their potential. The initial impact of Abenomics in 2013 was impressive, and the reform process needs to continue.
Achieving strong growth in the global economy remains elusive, with only a modest recovery in advanced economies and slower activity in emerging markets, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.
With gross government debt of 226% of GDP, Japan’s fiscal situation is in uncharted territory and puts the economy at risk. Japan needs a detailed and credible fiscal consolidation plan, including specific revenue increases and measures to control spending to restore its fiscal sustainability.
Innovation is key to boosting economic growth in the face of a rapidly ageing population. While Japan spends heavily on education and R&D, appropriate framework conditions are essential to increase the return on such investments by strengthening competition, both domestic and international, and improving resource allocation.
The Japanese economy is on a path to stronger growth, but fundamental structural reforms are urgently needed to promote a more robust recovery, address high levels of government debt and reverse a trend toward declining living standards, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Japan.
Low oil prices and monetary easing are boosting growth in the world’s major economies, but the near-term pace of expansion remains modest, withabnormally low inflation and interest rates pointing to risks of financial instability, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Assessment.
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This country note from Going for Growth 2015 for Japan identifies and assesses progress made on key reforms to boost long-term growth, improve competitiveness and productivity and create jobs.
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The global economy continues to run at low speed and many countries, particularly in Europe, seem unable to overcome the legacies of the crisis. With high unemployment, high inequality and low trust still weighing heavily, it is imperative to swiftly implement reforms that boost demand and employment and raise potential growth.
While the outlook for many OECD countries remains subdued, Emerging Asia is set for healthy growth over the medium term. Annual GDP growth for the ASEAN -10, China and India is forecast to average 6.5% over 2015-19. Growth momentum remains robust in the 10 ASEAN countries, with economic growth averaging 5.6% over 2015-19.