China (People’s Republic of)
Remarks by Alvaro S. Pereira, Director, Country Studies, Economics Dept
17-March-2017
English, PDF, 110kb
This country note from Going for Growth 2017 for China identifies and assesses progress made on key reforms to boost long-term growth, improve competitiveness and productivity and create jobs.
Since the beginning of China’s economic transformation in the early 1970s, investment has been a key driver of China’s growth and has contributed to substantial improvements in living standards. Over three decades of average annual GDP growth of 10%, disposable incomes have soared, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty. The share of the population living in extreme poverty has declined from above 90% in the early 1980s to less than 10% today. However, this growth model is no longer sustainable. Returns on investment have declined, although they are still higher than those of the Asian Tigers. Excess capacity is plaguing several sectors, and negative externalities have been onerous, notably in terms of environmental degradation and income inequality. A key objective of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) is therefore to move the economy towards a path of more balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth.
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Leaders of the G20 countries meeting at their Summit in Hangzhou, China, have called on the OECD to help develop an agenda to build a stronger, more innovative and inclusive world economy.
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Since the start of the economic reform process in the 70s China has been able to generate a large volume of investment, both from domestic and foreign sources. This high volume of investment was instrumental in sustaining strong economic growth and related improvements in living standards. However, this growth model is not longer sustainable. Returns on investment have fallen, excessive capacity is plaguing several sectors and the negative externalities have been very onerous, notably in terms of environmental degradation and rising income inequality. A key objective of the Chinese government is therefore to move the economy towards a more balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth path as envisaged by the 13th Five-Year Plan. In this adjustment process, the country is seeking new approaches for smarter, greener and more productive investment. This will require mutually reinforcing reforms to improve investment planning, rebalance the role of government and market forces, mainstream responsible business conduct and encourage greater private investment, especially in green infrastructure. China’s growing role as an outward investor may act as catalyser for the required reforms at home, as Chinese private and state-owned enterprises have to adopt internationally recognised practices and standards .
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Achieving strong growth in the global economy remains elusive, with only a modest recovery in advanced economies and slower activity in emerging markets, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.
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Latin America’s GDP growth slowdown deepened and is expected to be negative in 2015. For a second consecutive year, Latin America falls behind the average growth of OECD countries after a full decade of convergence with advanced economies, according to the Latin American Economic Outlook 2016.
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This paper first decomposes labour productivity growth over 2000-11 into a within-industry, a shift and a cross effect in a number of countries and compares China with other countries over this period. This shift-share analysis also allows a comparison of within-sector productivity gains across a large number of sectors and countries.
This paper aims at gauging the skills and knowledge gap of tertiary graduates of universities and vocational colleges across China. It also looks at the employment and wage prospects of graduates with different educational backgrounds.
China has made impressive strides in education in recent decades, even though the accumulation of human capital has lagged behind that of physical capital. Going forward, access to and quality of education will be key to sustain economic convergence with the most advanced economies and to offset the drag exerted by population ageing.