Publications & Documents


  • 17-October-2012

    English

    Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: myth or reality?

    The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt to GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower economic performance in advanced and emerging economies alike.

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  • 2-October-2012

    English

    Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation

    In many OECD countries debt has soared to levels threatening fiscal sustainability, necessitating its reduction over the medium to longer term. This paper uses stylised simulations in a small, calibrated macroeconomic model which features endogenous interactions between fiscal policy, growth and financial markets.

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  • 19-September-2012

    English

    Tackling Turkey’s external and domestic macroeconomic imbalances

    Effective macroeconomic and structural policies helped Turkey bounce back quickly and strongly from the global crisis, with annual growth averaging close to 9% over 2010-11

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  • 19-September-2012

    English

    Tackling Turkey’s external and domestic macroeconomic imbalances

    Effective macroeconomic and structural policies helped Turkey bounce back quickly and strongly from the global crisis, with annual growth averaging close to 9% over 2010-11

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  • 19-September-2012

    English

    Portugal: solid foundations for a sustainable fiscal consolidation

    Owing to slow growth and a relatively weak fiscal position, Portugal’s public debt had been rising for almost a decade when the global crisis struck, sharply increasing the deficit.

  • 19-September-2012

    English

    Portugal: assessing the risks around the speed of fiscal consolidation in an uncertain environment

    This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme.

  • 30-July-2012

    English

    Avoiding debt traps: financial backstops and structural reforms

    In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.

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  • 30-July-2012

    English

    Implications of output gap uncertainty in times of crisis

    This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap.

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  • 6-July-2012

    English

    Avoiding debt traps: financial backstops and structural reforms

    In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze “good” and “bad equilibria” in public-debt and growth dynamics.

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  • 2-July-2012

    English

    Europe's new fiscal rules

    Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called "six pack" to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the "fiscal compact".

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