While still disappointing, the global economy is moving forward, at multiple speeds. These multiple speeds reflect different paths towards self-sustained growth, with each path carrying its own mix of risks.
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This paper puts the original Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to pin down debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation from debt to growth is not very robust.
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Fiscal consolidation is on track to restoring surpluses, but longer-term cost pressures related to population ageing call for sustained efforts to reduce public debt through spending and tax reforms that enhance efficiency, growth, and equity.
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