Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

United States - Economic forecast summary (May 2018)


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Economic growth is strengthening to about 3% largely due to a substantial fiscal boost. Employment growth remains robust which, coupled with buoyant asset prices and strong consumer confidence, is sustaining income and consumption growth. Business investment is projected to strengthen as a result of major tax reform and supportive financial conditions. A pick-up in the world economy is underpinning export growth, although tensions have emerged on how best to reduce barriers to trade. 

Fiscal policy is set to loosen substantially. As spending appropriations are determined, they should prioritise boosting the productive capacity of the economy, such as by supporting infrastructure investment. Fiscal policy combined with structural policies can also help those on the margins of the labour force into employment. As macroeconomic policy rebalances, the projected gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation is needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and inflation expectations rise to their historical norms. Heightened risks in the non-financial corporate sector have emerged.

EO103 USA.1

EO103 USA.2

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Economic Survey of the United States (survey page)


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