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Growth is projected to continue at a moderate pace. Private consumption and investment will benefit from a boost to confidence from higher oil prices and sound macroeconomic policies which have improved financial conditions. Limits on oil production from the OPEC+ agreement will constrain export growth. Modest income growth keeps inequality and poverty high. Oil price uncertainty, international sanctions, and the post-presidential election agenda weigh on the outlook.
Fiscal policy has been tight due to financing constraints on account of sanctions and the exhaustion of the Stabilisation Fund. Consolidation is enforced by a new fiscal rule, which sets spending and deficit based on revenue corresponding to a USD 40 per barrel oil price. Over time, spending on education, health and infrastructure should be increased to reduce inequality and poverty. Monetary easing will support demand as inflation expectations are contained. Fiscal and pension reforms are needed to boost potential growth given a declining labour force and low productivity.
Economic Survey of the Russian Federation (survey page)