Working Papers

  • 6-June-2011


    A dynamic factor model for world trade growth

    This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators.

  • 31-May-2011


    How important is wealth for explaining household consumption over the recent crisis? An empirical study for the United States, Japan and the euro area

    This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area.

  • 5-May-2011


    Surveillance by international institutions: lessons from the global financial and economic crisis

    This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007.

  • 15-April-2011


    What drives inflation in the major OECD economies?

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation.

  • 17-December-2010


    Reforming China’s monetary policy framework to meet domestic objectives

    As a result of reforms and financial sector development, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) now exerts significant control over money market interest rates.

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  • 9-December-2010


    The 2008-09 crisis in Turkey: performance, policy responses and challenges for sustaining the recovery

    Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades.

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  • 18-November-2010


    Are global imbalances sustainable? Shedding further light on the causes of current account reversals

    Large shifts in countries’ external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises.

  • 13-September-2010


    A Simulation Model of Federal, Provincial and Territorial Government Accounts for the Analysis of Fiscal-Consolidation Strategies in Canada

    This paper presents a simulation model of the main budget aggregates of federal, provincial and territorial governments in Canada. It also contains an analysis of the cyclicality of Canadian governments’ fiscal policies between 1984 and 2007.

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  • 27-July-2010


    Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis

    Concern that unilateral greenhouse gas emission reductions could foster carbon leakage and undermine the international competitiveness of domestic industry has led to growing calls for carbon-based border-tax adjustments (BTAs).

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