Working Papers


  • 2-January-2012

    English

    Explaining the interest-rate-growth differential underlying government debt dynamics

    The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability.

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  • 25-November-2011

    English

    Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis

    The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD.

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  • 28-July-2011

    English

    Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

    OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

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  • 28-July-2011

    English

    Can India achieve double-digit growth?

    In recent years, India has enjoyed one of the highest growth rates worldwide, weathering the global financial crisis better than many other countries.

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  • 21-July-2011

    English

    HOUSING: Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

    OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

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  • 6-June-2011

    English

    A dynamic factor model for world trade growth

    This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators.

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  • 31-May-2011

    English

    How important is wealth for explaining household consumption over the recent crisis? An empirical study for the United States, Japan and the euro area

    This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area.

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  • 5-May-2011

    English

    Surveillance by international institutions: lessons from the global financial and economic crisis

    This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007.

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  • 15-April-2011

    English

    What drives inflation in the major OECD economies?

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation.

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