Working Papers


  • 21-July-2011

    English

    HOUSING: Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

    OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

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  • 6-June-2011

    English

    A dynamic factor model for world trade growth

    This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators.

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  • 31-May-2011

    English

    How important is wealth for explaining household consumption over the recent crisis? An empirical study for the United States, Japan and the euro area

    This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area.

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  • 5-May-2011

    English

    Surveillance by international institutions: lessons from the global financial and economic crisis

    This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007.

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  • 15-April-2011

    English

    What drives inflation in the major OECD economies?

    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation.

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  • 17-December-2010

    English

    Reforming China’s monetary policy framework to meet domestic objectives

    As a result of reforms and financial sector development, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) now exerts significant control over money market interest rates.

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  • 9-December-2010

    English

    The 2008-09 crisis in Turkey: performance, policy responses and challenges for sustaining the recovery

    Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades.

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  • 18-November-2010

    English

    Are global imbalances sustainable? Shedding further light on the causes of current account reversals

    Large shifts in countries’ external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises.

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  • 13-September-2010

    English

    A Simulation Model of Federal, Provincial and Territorial Government Accounts for the Analysis of Fiscal-Consolidation Strategies in Canada

    This paper presents a simulation model of the main budget aggregates of federal, provincial and territorial governments in Canada. It also contains an analysis of the cyclicality of Canadian governments’ fiscal policies between 1984 and 2007.

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