Working Papers


  • 2-July-2014

    English

    An update of the OECD international trade equations

    This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments.

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  • 22-April-2014

    English

    New evidence on the determinants of industrial specialisation

    Industrial specialization has important implications for economic performance; therefore, understanding its determinants is of key policy relevance.

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  • 22-April-2014

    English

    Economic growth from the household perspective: GDP and income distribution developments across OECD countries

    This paper provides an assessment of how households’ income has fared compared with GDP. While the prime focus is on incomes around the median, attention is paid also to the bottom of the income distribution.

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  • 3-April-2014

    English

    Short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth in the BRIICS: a small-scale bridge model approach

    This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries.

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  • 24-March-2014

    English

    OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem

    This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned.

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  • 14-March-2013

    English

    Policy options to durably resolve euro area imbalances

    A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price.

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  • 6-March-2013

    English

    The price of oil – will it start rising again?

    Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource.

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  • 19-September-2012

    English

    Current account benchmarks for Turkey

    Turkey’s current account deficit widened to almost 10% of GDP in 2011 and has been narrowing only gradually since. An important question is to what extent Turkey’s current account deficit is excessive.

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  • 30-July-2012

    English

    Measuring GDP forecast uncertainty using quantile regressions

    Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.

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  • 27-July-2012

    English

    Non-parametric stochastic simulations to investigate uncertainty around the OECD indicator model forecasts

    The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).

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