Working Papers


8-February-2012

English

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.

12-January-2012

English

Fiscal consolidation: Part 3. Long-run projections and fiscal gap calculations

During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed.

12-January-2012

English

The nature of financial and real business cycles: the great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators.

12-January-2012

English

Fiscal consolidation: Part 1. How much is needed and how to reduce debt to a prudent level?

The economic and financial crisis was the catalyst for a fiscal crisis that engulfs many OECD countries. In most countries, budget deficits soared as a result of the economic slump, weaker revenues and the policy response to the crisis.

2-January-2012

English

Explaining the interest-rate-growth differential underlying government debt dynamics

The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability.

25-November-2011

English

Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis

The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD.

28-July-2011

English

Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

28-July-2011

English

Can India achieve double-digit growth?

In recent years, India has enjoyed one of the highest growth rates worldwide, weathering the global financial crisis better than many other countries.

Related Documents

21-July-2011

English

HOUSING: Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

6-June-2011

English

A dynamic factor model for world trade growth

This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators.

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