Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis

The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD.

Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

Can India achieve double-digit growth?

In recent years, India has enjoyed one of the highest growth rates worldwide, weathering the global financial crisis better than many other countries.

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• Economic Survey of India 2011

HOUSING: Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

A dynamic factor model for world trade growth

This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators.

How important is wealth for explaining household consumption over the recent crisis? An empirical study for the United States, Japan and the euro area

This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area.

Surveillance by international institutions: lessons from the global financial and economic crisis

This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007.

What drives inflation in the major OECD economies?

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation.

Reforming China’s monetary policy framework to meet domestic objectives

As a result of reforms and financial sector development, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) now exerts significant control over money market interest rates.

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• Economic Survey of China 2010