Working Papers


  • 27-July-2012

    English

    Non-parametric stochastic simulations to investigate uncertainty around the OECD indicator model forecasts

    The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).

  • 8-February-2012

    English

    The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe

    This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.

  • 12-January-2012

    English

    Fiscal consolidation: Part 3. Long-run projections and fiscal gap calculations

    During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed.

  • 12-January-2012

    English

    The nature of financial and real business cycles: the great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality

    This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators.

  • 12-January-2012

    English

    Fiscal consolidation: Part 1. How much is needed and how to reduce debt to a prudent level?

    The economic and financial crisis was the catalyst for a fiscal crisis that engulfs many OECD countries. In most countries, budget deficits soared as a result of the economic slump, weaker revenues and the policy response to the crisis.

  • 2-January-2012

    English

    Explaining the interest-rate-growth differential underlying government debt dynamics

    The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability.

  • 25-November-2011

    English

    Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis

    The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD.

  • 28-July-2011

    English

    Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

    OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

  • 28-July-2011

    English

    Can India achieve double-digit growth?

    In recent years, India has enjoyed one of the highest growth rates worldwide, weathering the global financial crisis better than many other countries.

    Related Documents
  • 21-July-2011

    English

    HOUSING: Predicting peaks and troughs in real house prices

    OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case.

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