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Working Papers


  • 7-March-2019

    English

    Calibrating GDP Fan Charts Using Probit Models with a Comparison to the Approaches of the Bank of England and Riksbank

    Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast.

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  • 19-December-2018

    English

    Who’s in your export market? The changing pattern of competition in world trade

    The rapid integration of emerging market economies (EMEs) into world trade over the past three decades has raised widespread concerns about the effects this is having on trade-exposed sectors in advanced OECD countries.

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  • 13-December-2018

    English

    Keeping track of global trade in real time

    This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services.

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  • 13-December-2018

    English

    Improving the Czech health care system

    The Czech health care system is doing well in terms of health outcomes compared to other Central East European economies that inherited similar health systems after the transition and has been converging to OECD averages.

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  • 12-December-2018

    English

    Fan charts around GDP projections based on probit models of downturn risk

    This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD.

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  • 16-April-2018

    English

    Investment as a transmission mechanism from weak demand to weak supply and the post-crisis productivity slowdown

    Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening.

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  • 23-February-2018

    English

    Saving, investment, capital stock and current account projections in long-term scenarios

    The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account.

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  • 21-November-2017

    English

    Designing fan charts for GDP growth forecasts to better reflect downturn risks

    Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns.

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  • 7-April-2017

    English

    Decentralisation to promote regional development in Indonesia

    In 1998 Indonesia embarked on an ambitious course of decentralisation. Over a period of a few years, facilitated by financial transfers from the central government, responsibility for many public services and administrative tasks were devolved to local authorities.

  • 11-January-2017

    English

    Malaysia’s economic success story and challenges

    Malaysia has sustained over four decades of rapid, inclusive growth, reducing its dependence on agriculture and commodity exports to become a more diversified, modern and open economy.

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