Working Papers


3-April-2014

English

Short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth in the BRIICS: a small-scale bridge model approach

This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries.

24-March-2014

English

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned.

14-March-2013

English

Policy options to durably resolve euro area imbalances

A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price.

6-March-2013

English

The price of oil – will it start rising again?

Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource.

19-September-2012

English

Current account benchmarks for Turkey

Turkey’s current account deficit widened to almost 10% of GDP in 2011 and has been narrowing only gradually since. An important question is to what extent Turkey’s current account deficit is excessive.

Related Documents

30-July-2012

English

Measuring GDP forecast uncertainty using quantile regressions

Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.

27-July-2012

English

Non-parametric stochastic simulations to investigate uncertainty around the OECD indicator model forecasts

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).

8-February-2012

English

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.

12-January-2012

English

Fiscal consolidation: Part 3. Long-run projections and fiscal gap calculations

During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed.

12-January-2012

English

The nature of financial and real business cycles: the great moderation and banking sector pro-cyclicality

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators.

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