Working Papers


  • 15-November-2016

    English, PDF, 1,340kb

    Can reforms promoting growth increase financial fragility? An empirical assessment

    Certain growth-promoting policies can have negative side-effects by increasing the vulnerability of economies to financial crises. Typical examples are greater openness to financial flows or more liberalised financial markets.

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  • 15-November-2016

    English, PDF, 1,325kb

    How do policies influence GDP tail risks?

    This paper explores the relationship between policy settings and extreme positive and negative growth events, what we call GDP tail risks, using quantile regression methods.

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  • 3-November-2016

    English

    The use of models in producing OECD macroeconomic forecasts

    This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models.

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  • 11-October-2016

    English

    The estimation of financial conditions indices for the major OECD countries

    This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions indices for six countries, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the euro area, updating earlier results by the OECD.

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  • 27-July-2016

    English

    Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession: a contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models

    This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD.

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  • 8-June-2016

    English

    Links between weak investment and the slowdown in productivity and potential output growth across the OECD

    The OECD framework for estimating potential output is combined with previous OECD empirical research to analyse the causes of recent weak productivity growth.

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  • 28-April-2016

    English

    Quantifying the effects of trade liberalisation in Brazil: a CGE simulation

    Brazil remains a fairly closed economy, with small trade flows relative to its share of world income. This paper explores the effects of three possible policy reforms to strengthen Brazil’s integration into global trade: a reduction in import tariffs, less local content requirements and a full zero-rating of exports in indirect taxes.

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  • 28-April-2016

    English

    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates

    Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points.

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  • 29-May-2015

    English

    Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment

    This paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the 'former' and 'new' specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD’s Economic Outlook projections.

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  • 17-October-2014

    English

    Investment gaps after the crisis

    The downturn in fixed investment among advanced economies from the onset of the global crisis was unusually severe, widespread and long-lasting relative to comparable episodes in the past. As a result, investment gaps are large in many countries, not only in relation to past norms but also relative to projected future steady-state levels, with a gap of 2 percentage points of GDP or more in several countries.

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