Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

Poland - Economic forecast summary (June 2016)

 

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Real GDP growth is projected to increase from around 3% in 2016 to 3½ per cent in 2017. Rising employment and wages, higher social transfers and low energy prices will support faster consumption growth. Easy credit conditions, and a pick-up in infrastructure investment supported by EU funds in 2017, will also underpin stronger investment. Consumer price inflation is projected to gradually rise, as energy prices stabilise and the labour market tightens.

The central bank should start increasing interest rates robust growth absorbs the remaining economic slack and price pressures emerge in late 2017. Additional fiscal consolidation would help finance new social spending and investment in infrastructure and skills over the longer term. Enhancing employment incentives for women and older workers, as well as increasing green taxes, would raise fiscal revenues, with positive effects on potential growth and environmental outcomes.

Planned investments in infrastructure, notably public transport, will strengthen productivity growth and well-being. At the same time, developing the rental housing market and life-long training opportunities would enhance workers’ mobility and skills, reducing inequality. Easing regulatory barriers to firms’ entry and growth would also improve prospects for young, dynamic firms and raise productivity.

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