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The economy is set to expand at only a modest pace with headwinds from weak external demand, a strong currency, high household indebtedness and fiscal consolidation. Post-earthquake rebuilding will provide the main impetus over the coming two years through buoyant investment activity.
The persistence of a heavy net foreign debt burden in an environment of considerable external risks underscores the need for proceeding with fiscal consolidation plans and for implementing structural reforms to raise national saving and improve long-term growth prospects. With the weak projected expansion, monetary policy should remain supportive through 2013.