Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

Mexico - Economic forecast summary (June 2015)


Mexico’s economic recovery is strengthening, led by US import demand for manufactures and a weaker currency. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. Firming exports have finally allowed the rebound to gain speed, and investment has begun to regain lost ground. Notwithstanding lower oil prices, new tenders are attracting considerable interest in the wake of the recent energy-sector reforms. Wide-ranging reforms to competition, energy and market regulation have helped boost confidence while monetary policy has been supportive.

While monetary policy has remained on hold so far, interest rates will need to be raised once the US Federal Reserve raises its rates to forestall potential capital outflows. Spending was tightened early in 2015 and a balanced budget is still foreseen in 2017.

Overall investment spending has been picking up strongly, particularly for durable equipment, while residential construction is also rising, albeit more gradually. Determined efforts to implement the wide-ranging recent structural reforms offer the best chance to boost investment and productivity, helping to ensure more rapid and sustainable gains in well-being going forward.

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