What are the forces shaping the global economic outlook for the next half century? How will the economic landscape change? How should policies adjust to cope with this change? This study identifies the following main challenges for the next 50 years?
- Sustaining growth while addressing rising inequality
- Stepping up international cooperation in an increasingly multipolar world
- Addressing emerging policy trade-offs
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The global economic balance will continue to shift towards the current non-OECD area, whose economic structure and exports will increasingly resemble those of the OECD.
Global growth will slow from 3.6% in 2010-2020 to 2.4% in 2050-2060 and will be increasingly driven by innovation and investment in skills.
Due to the rising economic importance of knowledge that will tend to raise returns to skills, by 2060 pre-tax earnings inequality in the OECD area may reach the level of today’s most unequal OECD countries.
Climate change will curb global GDP by 1.5% on average and almost 6% in South and South-East Asia before 2060, unless increases in CO2 emissions are curbed.
1112 New evidence on the determinants of industrial specialisation by Åsa Johansson and Eduardo Olaberría
1128 What explains the volume and composition of trade? Industrial evidence from a panel of countries by Åsa Johansson, Przemyslaw Kowalski, Eduardo Olaberría and Dario Pellegrino
1136 Long-term patterns of trade and specialisation by Åsa Johansson and Eduardo Olaberria
1139 Gross earning inequalities in OECD countries and major non-member economies: determinants and future scenarios by Henrik Braconier and Jenifer Ruiz Valenzuela
1140 International migration: the relationship with economic and policy factors in the home and destination by Ben Westmore
1141 The demand for skills 1995-2008: a global supply chain perspective by Bart Los, Marcel P. Timmer and Gaaitzen J. De Vries
Growth prospects and fiscal requirements over the long term
Economics department working papers