Latest Documents

  • 30-July-2012


    Measuring GDP forecast uncertainty using quantile regressions

    Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.

  • 27-July-2012


    Non-parametric stochastic simulations to investigate uncertainty around the OECD indicator model forecasts

    The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).

  • 5-June-2012

    English, PDF, 1,552kb

    Economic Outlook Database Inventory

    This document describes in detail the OECD Economic Outlook database. It provides the codes and descriptions of all variables, the country codes used, and the definitions of and relations between the variables. It is supplementary to the Sources and Methods of the Economic Outlook.

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  • 22-May-2012

    English, , 459kb

    EO91: Medium and long-term scenarios for global growth and imbalances

    This chapter considers long-term prospects and risks for the world economy.

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  • 22-May-2012

    English, , 528kb

    EO91: General Assessment

    EO 90 General Assessment

  • 22-May-2012


    Economy: Global economy recovering, but major risks remain, says OECD

    The global economy is recovering, but confidence is extremely uneven across different regions, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. European governments must take greater action to ensure that the crisis in the euro area does not derail the recovery.

  • 12-April-2012


    Fiscal Consolidation: How much, how fast and by what means?

    Consolidating public finances in order to address the consequences of the crisis, underlying weaknesses and also future spending pressures creates important challenges.

  • 8-February-2012


    The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe

    This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.

  • 16-January-2012


    Growth perspectives for 2012

    Given current levels of uncertainty, it is quite a challenge to discuss the outlook for the global economy in the months to come. But I will take the risk, and share the OECD’s assessment of the forces shaping the near-term outlook, the risks surrounding our projections and the major policy challenges facing many OECD countries.

  • 12-January-2012


    Fiscal consolidation: Part 3. Long-run projections and fiscal gap calculations

    During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed.

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