Latest Documents


  • 24-May-2016

    English

    Can we improve real-time estimates of the output gap for policy purposes?

    The output gap ought to be a key input in short-term policy-making because it provides a summary measure of economic slack, so allowing policy-makers to anticipate inflationary pressures. It can also be used to estimate cyclically-adjusted measures of the fiscal balance, to provide a better assessment of fiscal sustainability.

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  • 28-April-2016

    English

    Quantifying the effects of trade liberalisation in Brazil: a CGE simulation

    Brazil remains a fairly closed economy, with small trade flows relative to its share of world income. This paper explores the effects of three possible policy reforms to strengthen Brazil’s integration into global trade: a reduction in import tariffs, less local content requirements and a full zero-rating of exports in indirect taxes.

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  • 28-April-2016

    English

    An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates

    Estimates of the output gap ought to be a useful guide for macroeconomic policy, both for assessing inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability, but their reliability has been called into question by the large revisions which they are often subject to, particularly around turning points.

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  • 5-April-2016

    English

    Economic Survey of Germany 2016

    Germany is achieving good labour market outcomes and the recently introduced minimum wage has improved the situation of low wage earners. Main challenges are subdued investment, population ageing as well as the employability of refugees. Strengthening entrepreneurship and competition would boost investment. Policies could do more to help parents to reconcile professional and family obligations.

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  • 18-February-2016

    English

    Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, February 2016

    Global GDP growth in 2016 is projected to be no higher than in 2015, itself the slowest pace in the past five years. Forecasts have again been revised down in light of disappointing recent data.

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  • 18-February-2016

    English

    Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2016

    Weak trade growth and financial distortions are exacerbating slow global economic growth. The global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2015, with only a modest uptick expected in 2017. The Outlook warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages.

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  • 18-February-2016

    English

    Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2015

    Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2015

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  • 9-November-2015

    English, PDF, 565kb

    Economic Outlook 98 General Assessment

    Global growth prospects have clouded this year. A further sharp slowdown in emerging market economies (EMEs) is weighing on global activity and trade, and subdued investment and productivity growth is checking the momentum of the recovery in the advanced economies.

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  • 9-November-2015

    English, PDF, 206kb

    Cool Policy: Climate change mitigation supporting growth

    Climate change must be tackled decisively to avoid future costs, especially to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic changes. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations will eventually require a zero net carbon emission economy.

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  • 9-November-2015

    English

    Global Economic Outlook, November 2015

    Global growth prospects have clouded this year. A further sharp slowdown in emerging market economies (EMEs) is weighing on global activity and trade, and subdued investment and productivity growth is checking the momentum of the recovery in the advanced economies.

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