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Uncertainty dissuades investment. Although by some measures, economic uncertainty has fallen over the past three years, long-standing uncertainties persist, including how population ageing and climate change will be dealt with.
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Global growth is projected to strengthen in the course of 2015 and 2016, but will remain modest relative to the pre-crisis period and its global distribution will change from that in recent years.
Latin American economic growth is set to recover during the second half of 2015 and gain further speed in 2016, though with notable differences across countries.
This paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the 'former' and 'new' specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD’s Economic Outlook projections.
Corrigenda to statistical annex tables, Sources and Methods of the OECD Economic Outlook.
The global economy remains stuck in low gear, but is expected to accelerate gradually if countries implement growth-supportive policies. Widening differences across countries and regions are adding to the major risks on the horizon, according to the advanced G20 release of the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
The downturn in fixed investment among advanced economies from the onset of the global crisis was unusually severe, widespread and long-lasting relative to comparable episodes in the past. As a result, investment gaps are large in many countries, not only in relation to past norms but also relative to projected future steady-state levels, with a gap of 2 percentage points of GDP or more in several countries.
This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments.
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The composition of global output will continue to shift towards emerging economies as well as towards Asia; the combined GDP of China and India was 33% of that of the OECD in 2010 (on a PPP basis), but is expected to rise to 73% by 2060.
The global economy will strengthen over the coming two years, but urgent action is still required to further reduce unemployment and address other legacies from the crisis, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.