Latest Documents


  • 24-November-2016

    English

    The effect of the size and mix of public spending on growth and inequality

    The effect of the size and mix of public spending on growth and inequality

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  • 15-November-2016

    English, PDF, 1,340kb

    Can reforms promoting growth increase financial fragility? An empirical assessment

    Certain growth-promoting policies can have negative side-effects by increasing the vulnerability of economies to financial crises. Typical examples are greater openness to financial flows or more liberalised financial markets.

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  • 15-November-2016

    English, PDF, 1,325kb

    How do policies influence GDP tail risks?

    This paper explores the relationship between policy settings and extreme positive and negative growth events, what we call GDP tail risks, using quantile regression methods.

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  • 3-November-2016

    English

    The use of models in producing OECD macroeconomic forecasts

    This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models.

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  • 18-October-2016

    English

    Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession

    How was it possible not to see the Great Recession of 2008-09 coming? How could economic forecasters blindly ignore financial developments? These are typical questions asked by the media in the wake of the Great Recession.

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  • 11-October-2016

    English

    The estimation of financial conditions indices for the major OECD countries

    This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions indices for six countries, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the euro area, updating earlier results by the OECD.

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  • 30-September-2016

    English

    Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell: Why is world trade so weak, what can policy do about it?

    World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently.

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  • 27-July-2016

    English

    Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession: a contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models

    This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD.

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  • 14-June-2016

    English

    Structural reforms for more inclusive growth in Greece

    The Greek economy is turning around lately, but it remains in a deep depression. GDP has fallen by more than a quarter between 2007 and 2015, unemployment remains extremely high at 25 percent and anchored poverty – which measures poverty relative to its pre-crisis income level – has nearly tripled between 2007 and 2014, reaching a third of the population.

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  • 10-June-2016

    English

    The contribution of weak investment to the productivity slowdown

    Concerns around weak productivity growth are everywhere these days. As the latest OECD Economic Outlook notes, since the mid-2000s, productivity growth has been markedly lower than at any other time since the 1950s.

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