Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself.
The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE).
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This chapter considers long-term prospects and risks for the world economy.
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EO 90 General Assessment
The global economy is recovering, but confidence is extremely uneven across different regions, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. European governments must take greater action to ensure that the crisis in the euro area does not derail the recovery.
Consolidating public finances in order to address the consequences of the crisis, underlying weaknesses and also future spending pressures creates important challenges.
This paper studies the impact of recent changes in second pension pillars of three Central and Eastern European Countries on the deficit and implicit debt of their full pension systems.
Given current levels of uncertainty, it is quite a challenge to discuss the outlook for the global economy in the months to come. But I will take the risk, and share the OECD’s assessment of the forces shaping the near-term outlook, the risks surrounding our projections and the major policy challenges facing many OECD countries.
During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed.