Fan charts were pioneered by the Bank of England and Riksbank and provide a visually appealing means to convey the uncertainty surrounding a forecast.
The rapid integration of emerging market economies (EMEs) into world trade over the past three decades has raised widespread concerns about the effects this is having on trade-exposed sectors in advanced OECD countries.
This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services.
The Czech health care system is doing well in terms of health outcomes compared to other Central East European economies that inherited similar health systems after the transition and has been converging to OECD averages.
This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD.
Germany has been enjoying strong economic performance in recent years, building on strengthened domestic demand, good social outcomes and export performance. Exports have benefited from a large, productive and innovative manufacturing sector which has reinforced its position in sectors of long-standing comparative advantage, notably cars, chemical products and machine tools.
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This document describes in detail the OECD Economic Outlook database. It provides the codes and descriptions of all variables, the country codes used, and the definitions of and relations between the variables. It is supplementary to the Sources and Methods of the Economic Outlook.
Current weak labour productivity growth in many OECD countries reflects historically weak contributions from both total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital deepening.
The paper describes the framework used in long-term economic scenarios for the projection of the saving rate, investment, capital stock and current account.
Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns.