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Economic growth remains robust and is projected to edge higher in 2018 and 2019. Stronger consumer confidence and real income growth will lift private consumption. Infrastructure investment will remain high. Improvements in licensing and transport connectivity will support private investment and export performance. Inflation has been subdued, but the effects of higher commodity prices and currency depreciation will generate some upward pressure.
Bank Indonesia raised interest rates in May to contain exchange rate pressure. Some further tightening is assumed over the projection horizon as US interest rates rise. A steeper path may be needed if capital outflows persist. The budget deficit is projected to narrow slightly, which is prudent given rising uncertainty. Continued reforms to the tax administration and strengthened compliance will provide the means for higher infrastructure and social spending that promote inclusive growth. Reducing structural and administrative bottlenecks and fighting corruption remain crucial to strengthen growth.
Economic Survey of Indonesia (survey page)