Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

India - Economic forecast summary (June 2016)

 

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Economic growth is projected to remain strong, hovering around 7.5%. Private consumption will be boosted by expected large increases in public wages and declining inflation. Investment will pick up gradually as excess capacity fades, deleveraging continues for corporations and banks, and infrastructure projects mature.


Inflation is above the long-term target and public debt is high, leaving little room for accommodative policies. However, some monetary impulse is to come as recent cuts in policy rates are passed on to consumers and investors. The renewed commitment for fiscal consolidation is welcome but the quality of public finances should be improved by increasing tax revenue and tilting the spending mix towards physical and social infrastructure. Creating more and better quality jobs is the key to inclusive growth and requires modernising labour laws and making further progress in the ease of doing business.


Improving productivity is essential for India’s GDP per capita to catch up with higher-income countries. In the agriculture sector, which still absorbs about half of total employment, this would require farm consolidation and mechanisation as well as better storage and transport infrastructure. In the manufacturing sector, labour and product market regulations should be reformed to enable firms to expand to an efficient size. Providing better access to quality health and education systems is also key, both to raise productivity and to ensure its fruits are spread more equitably.

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