Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

Hungary - Economic forecast summary (May 2018)

 

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Economic growth is projected to remain strong but to slow somewhat in 2019 as capacity constraints bite. Real wage gains and employment increases will support private consumption, while investment will be stimulated by private firms and the disbursement of EU structural funds. Exports will benefit from robust external demand and new capacity expansion, although gains in market share will slow. Wage increases resulting from tighter labour market conditions will raise inflation, which is projected to exceed the central bank's 3% target in early 2019.

Fiscal and monetary policies are expansionary. In 2018, there have been tax reductions alongside widespread spending increases. Statutory minimum wages have also been raised sharply, with further increases scheduled. Prudent policies are needed to prevent overheating. Furthermore, with strong economic growth, a faster reduction of the budget deficit would allow the government to finance higher future age-related spending.

EO103 HUN

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Other information

Economic Survey of Hungary (survey page)

 

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