Economic growth is projected to rise significantly in 2017 and to exceed 3% in 2018. Domestic demand will strengthen, sustained by public and private investment. Household spending is set to slow as inflation will resume and cut into slow nominal income gains.
The fiscal stance is projected to ease in both 2017 and 2018. The authorities plan to use the fiscal room created by past budget surpluses, very low public debt and favourable borrowing conditions for additional spending on infrastructure and education. To make growth more inclusive, measures to further reduce taxes on low-wage earners and to support the employability of jobseekers would be welcome.
Estonia’s successful integration into global trade has contributed to strong growth since independence. However, the high vulnerability to external shocks that comes with openness has tended to affect vulnerable groups disproportionally. The social safety net and labour-market policies have been strengthened to address this issue, but a further improvement of the coverage and the targeting of social programmes would make growth more inclusive.
Economic Survey of Estonia (survey page)