OECD Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook

Main Economic Outlook (November 2017)

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Press conference material

 

The policy challenge: Catalyse the private sector for stronger and more inclusive growth, (PDF) Handout with summary of projections & editorial

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Press release, OECD sees global economy strengthening, but says further policy action needed to catalyse the private sector for stronger and more inclusive growth

> Read the Blogpost

Projections

Resilience in a time of high debt

> Resilience in a time of high debt (PDF)

Indebtedness of households and non-financial corporations in many advanced and emerging market economies is high. In many countries, it is continuing to rise. Highly indebted countries may be vulnerable to financial and real shocks, and such indebtedness may undermine the sustainability of growth in the medium term. Finance supports economic activity and innovation, but it can also increase risks, lower growth, and raise inequality. Whereas indebtedness does not necessarily imply financial distress, it is prudent to scrutinise high indebtedness and changes in the composition of financial portfolios, particularly in a time of exceptionally low but likely rising interest rates.

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BlogPost Should we worry about high household and corporate debt?

> Economic resilience webpage

Content

General assessment

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation 

The global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn becoming increasingly synchronised across countries. This long awaited lift to global growth, supported by policy stimulus, is being accompanied by solid employment gains, a moderate upturn in investment and a pick-up in trade growth.

Resilience in a time of high debt

‌> Resilience in a time of high debt (PDF)

Indebtedness of households and non-financial corporations in many advanced and emerging market economies is high. In many countries, it is continuing to rise. Highly indebted countries may be vulnerable to financial and real shocks, and such indebtedness may undermine the sustainability of growth in the medium term.

Online publication

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Statistical Annex

The annex tables are grouped into 8 categories and are available below in Excel. They can also be downloaded from the Economic Outlook online database.

Demand and output (1-12)

Annex Table 1. Real GDP
Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP
Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure
Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure
Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation
Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation
Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand
Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
Annex Table 10. Quarterly demand and output projections
Annex Table 11. Contribution to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
Annex Table 12. Output gaps

Inflation, Wages, Costs, Unemployment and Labour Market (13-23)

Annex Table 13. GDP deflators
Annex Table 14. Private consumption deflators
Annex Table 15. Consumer prices indices
Annex Table 16. Oil and other primary commodity markets
Annex Table 17. Compensation per employee
Annex Table 18. Labour productivity
Annex Table 19. Employment and labour force
Annex Table 20. Labour force, employment and unemployment
Annex Table 21. Unemployment rates: national definitions
Annex Table 22. Harmonised unemployment rates
Annex Table 23. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections

Key Supply Side Data (24-25)

Annex Table 24. Potential GDP and productive capital stock
Annex Table 25. Structural unemployment, wage shares and unit labor costs

Saving (26-28)

Annex Table 26. Household saving rates
Annex Table 27. Gross national saving
Annex Table 28. Household wealth and indebtedness

Fiscal balances and public indebtedness (29-38)

Annex Table 29. General government total outlays
Annex Table 30. General government current tax and non-tax receipts
Annex Table 31. General government financial balances
Annex Table 32. General government cyclically-adjusted balances
Annex Table 33. General government underlying balances
Annex Table 34. General government underlying primary balances
Annex Table 35. General government net debt interest payments
Annex Table 36. General government gross financial liabilities
Annex Table 37. General government net financial liabilities
Annex Table 38. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates (39-42)

Annex Table 39. Short-term interest rates
Annex Table 40. Long-term interest rates
Annex Table 41. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)
Annex Table 42. Effective exchange rates

House Prices (43-46)

Annex Table 43. Nominal house prices
Annex Table 44. Real house prices
Annex Table 45. House price-to-rent ratio
Annex Table 46. House price-to-income ratio

External Trade and Payments (47-63)

Annex Table 47. Export volumes of goods and services
Annex Table 48. Import volumes of goods and services
Annex Table 49. Export prices of goods and services
Annex Table 50. Import prices of goods and services
Annex Table 51. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices
Annex Table 52. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs
Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services
Annex Table 54. Export performance for total goods and services
Annex Table 55. Import penetration
Annex Table 56. Shares in world exports and imports
Annex Table 57. Geographical structure of world trade growth
Annex Table 58. Trade balances for goods and services
Annex Table 59. Balance of primary income
Annex Table 60. Balance of secondary income
Annex Table 61. Current account balances
Annex Table 62. Current account balances as a perentage of GDP
Annex Table 63. Structure of current account balances of major world regions

Spanish & Portuguese: selected texts

Algunos países

Espagnol  
Argentina Costa Rica
Brasil  España
Chile  México 
Colombia > Portugal
Portugues  
Portugal Brasil

Evaluación general

Evaluación general de la situación économica

La economía mundial crece ahora a su ritmo más alto desde 2010 y el repunte está cada vez más sincronizado entre los distintos países. La tan ansiada mejora del crecimiento mundial está respaldada por el estímulo de las políticas adoptadas y lleva aparejada un sólido aumento del empleo, una moderada recuperación de la inversión y un repunte de la actividad comercial. Se prevé que el crecimiento del PIB mundial se sitúe justo por encima del 3½ por ciento este año, aumentando hasta el 3¾ por ciento en 2018 antes de retroceder ligeramente en 2019.

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Previous releases

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2017

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2017 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2017

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Resilience in a time of high debt
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2017


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2016

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2016


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2016

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Promoting productivty and equality: a twin challenge
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, February 2016


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2015

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Cool policy: climate change mitigation supporting growth
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2015


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 1

Global Economic Outlook, June 2015

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Lifting investment for higher sustainable growth
Statistical annex 

Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, March 2015


OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2

Global Economic Outlook, November 2014

General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
Statistical annex 

Versions prior to November 2014 can be found here.

>> See also Economic Policy Papers, produced in the context of the work carried out on the two regular titles, OECD Economic Outlook and Going for Growth.