OECD Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook

Interim Economic Outlook (September 2016)

OECD warns weak trade and financial distortions damage global growth prospects

21/09/2016 - Weak trade growth and financial distortions are exacerbating slow global economic growth, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2015, with only a modest uptick expected in 2017. The Outlook warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages.

Live webcast of the press conference

Main Economic Outlook (June 2016)

Data

Country projections

Statistical Annex

The 62 Statistical Annex Tables from the latest Global Economic Outlook are available in Excel below or in OECD.Stat (online interactive database).

Below they have been grouped into 8 categories and can be consulted by clicking on the relevant heading. (See also the Notes on the Economic Outlook Statistical Annex). 

  • Demand and output (xls)

    - Real GDP
    - Nominal GDP
    - Real private consumption expenditure
    - Real public consumption expenditure
    - Real total gross fixed capital formation
    - Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
    - Real gross residential fixed capital formation
    - Real total domestic demand
    - Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
    - Quarterly demand and output projections
    - Contribution to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
    - Output gaps

  • Inflation, Wages, Costs, Unemployment and Labour Market (xls)

    - GDP deflators
    - Private consumption deflators
    - Consumer prices indices
    - Oil and other primary commodity markets
    - Compensation per employee
    - Labour productivity
    - Employment and labour force
    - Labour force, employment and unemployment
    - Unemployment rates: national definitions
    - Harmonised unemployment rates
    - Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections

  • House Prices (xls)

    - Nominal house prices
    - Real house prices
    - House price-to-rent ratio
    - House price-to-income ratio

  • Fiscal balances and public indebtedness (xls)

    - General government total outlays
    - General government current tax and non-tax receipts
    - General government financial balances
    - General government cyclically-adjusted balances
    - General government underlying balances
    - General government underlying primary balances
    - General government net debt interest payments
    - General government gross financial liabilities
    - General government net financial liabilities
    - Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt

  • Saving (xls)

    - Household saving rates
    - Gross national saving
    - Household wealth and indebtedness

  • Interest Rates and Exchange Rates (xls)

    - Short-term interest rates
    - Long-term interest rates
    - Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)
    - Effective exchange rates

  • External Trade and Payments (xls)

    - Export volumes of goods and services
    - Import volumes of goods and services
    - Export prices of goods and services
    - Import prices of goods and services
    - Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices
    - Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs
    - Export market growth in goods and services
    - Export performance for total goods and services
    - Import penetration
    - Shares in world exports and imports
    - Geographical structure of world trade growth
    - Trade balances for goods and services
    - Balance of primary income
    - Balance of secondary income
    - Current account balances
    - Current account balances as a perentage of GDP
    - Structure of current account balances of major world regions

  • Key Supply Side Data (xls)

    - Potential GDP and productive capital stock
    - Structural unemployment, wage shares and unit labor costs

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Video

Key issues discussed in the video:

Weak trade growth exacerbates low-growth trap

- Global trade growth has slowed dramatically
- Structural and cyclical factors are reducing demand and productivity growth
- This self-reinforcing low-growth trap hurts long-term prospects

Exceptionally low interest rates lead to financial distortions and risks

- Valuations are high despite weak growth prospects and ongoing uncertainties
- There are risks of volatility and sharp reversals across asset markets
- This environment will undermine financial institutions in the long term

Stronger fiscal, structural and trade policy action is required

- Overburdened monetary policy raises financial risks
- Use fiscal space to catalyse private activity now and boost long-term growth
- Implement structural policy packages to ensure trade and investment promote growth and inclusiveness

Watch the full press briefing with Catherine L Mann, OECD Chief Economist

Further reading

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Prepared by the OECD Economics Department, the Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, government spending, prices and current balances based on a review of each member country and of the induced effect on each of them on international developments. 

Published on 1 June, 2016

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