Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

Latest Interim Economic Outlook

Just released: Interim Economic Outlook

The world economy will continue to strengthen in 2018 and 2019, with global GDP growth projected to rise to about 4%, from 3.7% in 2017. Stronger investment, the rebound in global trade and higher employment are helping to make the recovery increasingly broad-based.

Economic outlook Key facts about the Economic Outlook Policy Papers | Working Papers

Economic Outlook Special Chapters


> How to make trade work for all

International trade has been a powerful engine of global economic growth and convergence in living standards between countries. Trade liberalisation has contributed to large economic gains of emerging market economies and to poverty decline. 

Fiscal Levers

Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap

In the context where public debt has reached high levels in most OECD countries, it is important to assess the extent of countries' fiscal space and the temporary deficit increase they can afford to run.  A rethink is needed for how the fiscal policy stance should be evaluated, particularly in the context where very low sovereign interest rates provide more fiscal space. 


Promoting productivity and equality: a twin challenge

Economies become more prosperous when output per worker rises. Since the early 2000s, however, productivity growth has declined in many advanced countries. The slowdown in productivity has been particularly pronounced since the global financial crisis. 

Climate Change

> Cool policy: climate change mitigation supporting growth

Climate change must be tackled decisively to avoid future costs, especially to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic changes. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations will eventually require a zero net carbon emission economy. 

Policy papers

Economic consequences of Brexit

> The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision

Membership of the European Union has contributed to the economic prosperity of the United Kingdom. Uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum has already started to weaken growth in the United Kingdom. 

Finance and inclusive growth

> Finance and inclusive growth: How to restore a healthy financial sector that supports long-lasting, inclusive growth?

Finance is a vital ingredient for economic growth, but there can also be too much of it. This study investigates what fifty years of data for OECD countries have to say about the role of the financial sector for economic growth and income inequality and draws policy implications.

Why is world trade so weak?

> Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell: Why is world trade so weak, what can policy do about it?

World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently. There are both structural and cyclical reasons for the slowdown. 

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