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This paper explores the relationship between policy settings and extreme positive and negative growth events, what we call GDP tail risks, using quantile regression methods.
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This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions indices for six countries, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the euro area, updating earlier results by the OECD.
The global financial crisis and its high economic and social costs have revived academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper aims to investigate the performance of vulnerability indicators as advance warning indicators of past severe GDP per capita recessions in Turkey.
Non-residential investment has fallen over the past 20 years as a share of GDP and is now lower than in several other high-income OECD countries.
To support the recovery, structural reforms that yield short-run as well as long-run gains should be prioritised.
This paper analyses two-way interactions between monetary policy and inequality in selected advanced economies. In the context of a highly accommodative monetary stance over recent years, the analysis focuses on the effects of monetary policy on inequality over the business cycle via its impacts on returns on assets, the cost of debt servicing and asset prices.
High house prices are being supported by very low interest rates, immigration-fuelled population growth and smaller family units, while demand is being bolstered by mortgage interest tax deductibility and institutional investors.
This paper offers an overview of developments in household debt over the past decades across a large sample of OECD countries, highlighting both common trends and country specificities. It examines the vulnerabilities associated with high household debt for households, the financial system and the wider economy.