Working Papers


  • 16-March-2015

    English

    The changing role of the exchange rate for macroeconomic adjustment

    Recent episodes of large exchange rate movements, such as for Japan or the United Kingdom, have typically not been associated with large changes in trade balances and despite the polarisation of international investment positions large currency fluctuations during the global crisis of 2008-09 did not cause significant financial dislocations.

  • 6-March-2015

    English

    The conduct of monetary policy in the future: instrument use

    The set of monetary policy instruments has expanded since the start of the global financial crisis in the many OECD economies. Against this background, this paper analyses whether some of the new instruments should be retained in the long term when broader financial stability objectives are likely to feature more prominently as monetary policy goals than prior to the crisis.

  • 17-October-2014

    English

    Factors behind the decline in real long-term government bond yields

    This paper describes developments in real long-term interest rates in the main OECD economies and surveys their various determinants. Real long-term government bond yields declined from the 1980s to very low levels in the recent period, though they have not reached the historical lows of the 1970s.

  • 17-October-2014

    English

    Investment gaps after the crisis

    The downturn in fixed investment among advanced economies from the onset of the global crisis was unusually severe, widespread and long-lasting relative to comparable episodes in the past. As a result, investment gaps are large in many countries, not only in relation to past norms but also relative to projected future steady-state levels, with a gap of 2 percentage points of GDP or more in several countries.

  • 17-October-2014

    English

    Secular stagnation: evidence and implications for economic policy

    This paper investigates whether OECD countries are facing secular stagnation. Secular stagnation is defined as a situation when policy interest rates bounded at zero fail to stimulate demand sufficiently, due to low or negative neutral real interest rates and low inflation, and when ensuing prolonged and subdued growth undermines potential growth via labour hysteresis and discouraged investment.

  • 1-October-2014

    English

    The effect of the global financial crisis on OECD potential output

    This paper estimates potential output losses from the global financial crisis by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends.

  • 18-September-2014

    English

    Addressing high household debt in Korea

    Rising household debt has become a major policy concern in Korea. By the end of 2012, it had risen to 164% of disposable income, well above the OECD average of 133%.

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  • 18-September-2014

    English

    Reducing macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey

    Turkey recovered swiftly from the global financial crisis but sizeable macroeconomic imbalances arose in the process.

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  • 5-September-2014

    English

    Boosting the development of efficient SMEs in the Netherlands

    Entrepreneurship is an important driver of economic growth, job creation and competitiveness. However, the small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) sector has been severely affected by the crisis, with access to bank finance being particularly difficult.

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  • 5-September-2014

    English

    Making the banking sector more resilient and reducing household debt in the Netherlands

    Dutch banks were put under heavy strains early in the global downturn and have comparatively weak financial buffers to cope with new shocks. Falling house prices have increased the share of households with negative home equity to nearly 35% for home-owning households and 40% for mortgage holders.

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