Productivity and long term growth

Meeting of NERO, 25 June 2010

 

AGENDA

Thursday 24 June

19h30 Informal dinner

Friday 25 June

09:00-10:00 Round 1: Gauging the fiscal challenge

 

  • How much has potential output suffered and how large are structural deficits?
  • What is the size of contingent liabilities?
  • What is an appropriate debt target and what criteria define it?

 

Ray Barrell, NIESR Potential output effects
Christian Dreger, DIW Effects on potential output and structural deficits
Coen Teulings, CPB Financial crisis; output gaps and deficits
Dave Turner, OECD Medium-term fiscal challenges

10:00-11:00 Round 2: The tacticts of consolidation

 

  • What is the appropriate time profile of fiscal consolidation? (Financial market pressures may suggest early tightening but the desire for monetary policy accommodation suggests delay)
  • How important are cross-country spillovers of fiscal consolidation?
  • How to adjust fiscal imbalances inside monetary union?
  • What is the political economy of fiscal consolidation?
  • What is the potential role of fiscal rules?


Mitsuhiro Fukao, JCER Consolidation under deflationary pressur
Ray Barrell, NIESR Fiscal consolidation in Europe
Stephanie Guichard, OECD Lessons from past episodes of consolidation
James Poterba, NBER US State Experience with Tax and Expenditure Limits

11:00-11:15 Coffee break

11:15-12:30 Round 3: The instruments of consolidation

  • Tax vs. spending based consolidation?
  • What are the multiplier effects of different instruments?
  • What is the scope for efficiency gains in public spending?
  • What is the scope for green revenue?
  • What taxes are best at taking into account efficiency and equity objectives?

 

Karl Aiginger, WIFO Structure of fiscal consolidation & Ten guidelines for budget consolidation

Mitsuhiro Fukao, JCER Green revenue and fiscal consolidation

Peter Hoeller, OECD Scope for efficiency gains in public spending

Yukinobu Kitamura, TCER Monetary and fiscal policy under instruments interdependence

12:30-14:00 Round 4: Macroprudential policies and financial regulation (sandwich lunch)
Structural separation vs. risk-weighting?

  • How to deal with TBTF?
  • How much moral hazard has been created by the crisis response?
  • How best to avoid unduly risky funding structures?
  • Role of taxation in affecting behaviour/pre-funding resolution?
  • How best to avoid illiquidity problems (standardisation and exchange trading vs. tailoring)?

 

Ray Barrell, NIESR Capital and liquidity standards to reduce the risk of crisis
Adrian Blundell-Wignall, OECD Issues in financial regulation

14:00-15:15 Round 5: The labour market challenge and response

  • What can explain the atypical labour adjustment patterns?
  • What are the risks of a jobless recovery across countries?
  • What are the risks of long-term scars on labour supply?
  • How far and fast should labour market responses be rolled back?
  • What structural reforms are needed to return to low unemployment and high participation?

Romain Duval, OECD Labour market reforms in the wake of the crisis

15:15-16:00 Round 6: NERO housekeeping issues

 

  • Suggestions for bringing in new NEROs?
  • Suggestions for organising future NERO meetings?
  • Suggestions for joint activities?

 

For more information, contact:
Lyn URMSTON: Lyn.Urmston@oecd.org; +(33-1) 45 24 91 83.

 

 

 

Countries list

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