Economics Department

Economic resilience

 

 

 

 Data

 Vulnerability indicators, Excel (updated June 2017) 

 

 

 Policy Paper

 

Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises, PDF (2016)

 

 

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent

Their effect on the economy is persistent and it often exceeds initial projections.

 

It is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such events

Economic resilience can be strengthened by implementing policies aimed at mitigating both the risks and consequences of severe crises.  In the case of risks this implies being able to monitor home-grown vulnerabilities;  coping with the consequences means identifying policy settings and mechanisms that can be put in place ex ante so as to help absorbing the impact of a severe downturn.

However, the benefits of such policies need to be balanced against their costs in terms of the lower growth 

When risk-mitigating measures involve a trade-off between growth and crisis risk, the most cost-effective actions need to be identified, spanning both macroeconomic and structural policies.

Working Papers (PDFs)

Can Reforms Promoting Growth Increase Financial Fragility? An Empirical Assessment (2016)


How do policies influence GDP tail risks? (2016)


Advance warning indicators of past severe GDP per capita recessions in Turkey (2016)


Economic Resilience: A New Set of Vulnerability Indicators for OECD Countries (2015)


Economic Resilience: The Usefulness of Early Warning Indicators in OECD Countries (2015)


Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies? (2015)

 Economic policies in a growth and fragility framework

Resilience

 
 

Note: The X axis plots the effect of policies on fragility; fragility is defined as higher likelihood of a financial crisis (policies with red outline) or a higher GDP (negative) tail risk.  Three types of financial crises are considered:  currency, banking and twin crises.  Tail risk is defined as the effect of a policy variable on the bottom 10% of the distribution for quarterly GDP growth. The chart reports coefficients corresponding either to elasticities or marginal effects, depending on the policy considered. Institutional quality indicators are associated with both growth and lower fragility; labour and product market policies generally affect growth, with little or no impact economic risk. Growth fragility trade-offs exist when considering macro prudential and financial markets policies. The yellow dot under the green area (Quality of instiutions) represents the effect on growth and fragility of a free-floating exchange rate, while the one under the light blue area (Labour market) represents automatic stabilisers.

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Vulnerability indicators (updated 2 March 2017)  For more information, please contact Alain de Serres

 

 

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