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Business Cycles and Cyclical Indicators in China
This report examines how the OECD system of leading indicators can be applied in China in order to detect and predict turning points in the business cycle. It refers to the reform period beginning in the late 1970s. Growth cycles in industrial production since 1978 are determined and a number of statistical series are examined to determine if they can be used to predict turning points in these cycles. The study was undertaken by staff of the OECD and the National Bureau of Statistics, China. It is a bilingual English-Chinese publication.
National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing, March 2001.
Business Tendency Surveys. Proceedings of the Second Joint OECD-ADB-ESCAP Workshop, Bangkok, November 2000
This volume contains the papers and proceedings of the second Workshop on Business Tendency Surveys for Asian countries held the UN Conference Centre in Bangkok.
CCNM/STD (2001) 2
Business Tendency Surveys in the Russian Federation
In collaboration with the OECD, the Centre for Economic Analysis of the Russian Government and the State Statistics of the Russian Federation have developed a number of Business Tendency Surveys for the key sectors of the Russian economy. The results of these surveys are widely used both in Russia and by the international community for monitoring economic developments. This report describes the methodologies underlying these surveys and gives some recent results.
CCNM/STD (2000) 4
Business Tendency Surveys. Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November 1999
In collaboration with the Asian Development bank (ADB), the OECD Statistics Directorate organised a workshop in November 1999 held at ADB headquarters in Manila, with the broad aim of encouraging wider use of business tendency surveys in the Asia-Pacific region. This volume contains the report on the Manila Workshop together with the papers presented by country participants, by OECD Secretariat and by invited experts from Germany, Hungary and Japan. The intention is to provide a body of documentation on practical issues of business tendency surveys and on their use for monitoring short-term economic developments in the region.
CCNM/STD(2000)3
Development of Business and Consumer Surveys in Central and Eastern Europe
Summary of Workshops 1991-1996
This report presents the deliberations of a series of workshops held over to period 1991 to 1996 which focused on the development of business and consumer surveys. The report focuses on the main points and issues discussed at each workshop. These related to the development of harmonised questionnaires to enable the compilation of data comparable between transition countries and with OECD and European Union Member countries. The current version of the standardised questions for the industry, construction and retail trade surveys, and for consumer surveys are provided in Attachments 1 and 2.
General Distribution
OECD/GD(97)84
Business Tendency Surveys in Transition Countries
Methodological Review and Recommendations for Harmonization
This document focuses on business tendency surveys, which provide a cost-effective means of generating timely information on short-term economic developments. It sets out the guidelines used by Belarus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia for the harmonisation of their business tendency surveys, and also provides a review of the surveys being undertaken in these countries. The harmonisation ensures the comparability data both between the countries concerned and with data produced in OECD and European Union Member countries. The methodological issues involved in the design and implementation of business tendency surveys are discussed in the document. Many aspects of the methodology can be used in the collection of other statistics.
General Distribution
OECD/GD(97)59
Cyclical Indicators and Business Tendency Surveys
This document focuses on the utilisation of information gathered by business tendency surveys for the development of reliable cyclical indicators that are used for analysing business cycles and for predicting cyclical turning points in aggregate economic activity. In particular, the document outlines conceptual information and provides a detailed description of the methodologies used by OECD Member countries and by the OECD itself for the compilation of such indicators. The paper provides the necessary background to the development of cyclical indicators in transition countries. Another document published by the OECD describes the application of these concepts in the development of cyclical indicators in Poland and Hungary (Cyclical Indicators in Poland and Hungary).
General Distribution
OECD/GD(97)58
Cyclical Indicators in Poland and Hungary
This document contains a more detailed discussion of the underlying concepts used in the formulation of cyclical indicators in Poland and Hungary. These include cycles, turning point and trend estimation, composite indicators, etc. These are discussed primarily in relation to cyclical indicators developed by international organisations such as the OECD as well as in member countries of the OECD and the European Union.
General Distribution
OECD/GD(97)141
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