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Contents | Executive summary | How to obtain this publication | Additional information
The following OECD assessment and recommendations summarise chapter 4 of the Economic survey of Turkey published on 17 July 2008.
Contents
Enhancing the competitiveness of labour-intensive activities remains essential
The business sector’s successful post-crisis performance and employment creation capacity has come under strain, independently from the domestic and international shocks of early 2008. Mounting competition from low-cost countries and strong trend real currency appreciation have severely weakened the trade-exposed sector, notably cost-sensitive activities highly dependent on domestic inputs and low-skilled labour. Since low-skilled labour is the economy’s most abundant resource and these sectors have a large share in total output and employment, as well as exports, these strains spilled-over to the entire economy. Trade-sheltered activities were initially boosted by the household income gains stimulated by real currency appreciation. However, higher than expected inflation and rising unemployment curbed real incomes throughout the economy and also affected the non-tradable sector, contributing to a weakening growth performance. An upturn is only possible with the improvement of the competitiveness of Turkey’s labour-intensive activities.
The improvement of competitiveness should draw on stronger structural foundations
Competitiveness gains needed to re-balance the dynamics of growth cannot come from a policy induced reversal of trend real currency appreciation, which is an integral part of the catching up process. External and internal shocks trigger depreciations but these generally prove to be of short duration while long-term dynamics of capital inflows remain very strong. In these circumstances the necessary competitiveness gains in the business sector can only be achieved by boosting productivity growth, moderating wage increases, and successfully differentiating its output (in order to be able to charge higher prices than lower-cost competitors). In other words, it is a flexible labour market as well as a competition-friendly product market environment which is needed to do the job. The Survey confirms that manufacturing industry has been achieving remarkable performances in these areas but the gains are concentrated in the modern part of the economy. Productivity growth and competitiveness gains need to be generalised to the entire economy with additional reforms.
Productivity potential should be mobilised by fostering the growth of the formal sector
There are large productivity reserves latent in the business sector. They arise from a large part of economic activity still being carried out in informal and semi-formal activities. If more resources can be shifted to formal business activities, the aggregate productivity and competitive performance of the economy would benefit from better access to financial services, opportunities to deepen the division of labour and develop own comparative advantages as well as better incentives to invest in firm-specific human capital. Formal firms draw more effectively on the technology, skilled labour, capital and FDI resources becoming available in the rapidly globalising economy. Overcoming the duality between formal and informal sectors, and accelerating the shift of resources to the formal sector, should be the centrepiece of Turkey’s structural reforms.
Ongoing reforms should be complemented with further measures to reap synergies
The government has launched a range of important initiatives to strengthen the business sector and Turkey has started to move up in various international rankings of doing business indicators. In particular, an Employment Package enacted in May 2008 entailed significant measures for reducing labour tax wedges and promoting national employment services emphasizing the upgrading of the skills of the labour force.
However, progress has been limited in some of the most critical areas, and this also holds back the effectiveness of other reforms. Top priorities in fostering the development of the formal sector are:
Making product markets competitive and reducing the administrative burdens for doing business in the formal sector should also remain an ongoing objective, in particular in the service sectors where competition remains less vibrant than in trade-exposed activities.
Labour market reforms
Labour market rules remain among the most rigid in the OECD area, even after the implementation of the 2008 employment package. Priority should be given to reforms to:
Capital market modernisation needs fuller financial transparency, but this raises challenges
Corporate finance markets are currently underdeveloped in Turkey. Enhancing financial transparency is the key requirement for the development of markets for medium-to-long term bank loans, corporate debt securities, private equity placements and listed equities. These capital sources all have a role to play in the development of higher productivity and more competitive firms in the formal sector. Three areas are particularly important and have been addressed by the authorities, but progress has been slower than expected:
The authorities should identify obstacles to progress in these areas and maintain efforts to increase financial transparency for the development of formal capital markets.
Transition to stronger enforcement of rules should go hand-in-hand with the deepening of structural reforms
The enforcement of business regulations has recently been intensified and this is highly welcome. However, if structural reforms are not deepened in parallel, thereby reducing the costs of doing business in the formal sector, this may generate output and employment losses. The government should develop and implement a comprehensive “formalisation strategy” combining continuing structural reforms in top priority areas with the stronger enforcement of rules and regulations.
Performances of well-performing, squeezed and intermediary sectors
How to obtain this publication
The Policy Brief (pdf format) can be downloaded in English. It contains the OECD assessment and recommendations.The complete edition of the Economic survey of Turkey 2008 is available from:
Additional information
For further information please contact the Turkey Desk at the OECD Economics Department at eco.survey@oecd.org. The OECD Secretariat's report was prepared by Rauf Gönenç, Rina Battacharya, Olcay Culha and Cafer Kaplan, under the supervision of Andreas Wörgötter. Research assistance was provided by Béatrice Guérard.
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