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Activity
This project covers the future demand and supply of seafarers with a special focus on the impact of developments in ship design and construction, technology and management and operational practices on the demand for ship crews, both in terms of numbers and skill levels.
The expected output is a report, which will cover the following items:
- An assessment of the impact on crew numbers of technological and management innovations in shipping in the next 5-10 years.
- An assessment of consequent changes in key skill and experience requirements, especially where these imply a significant departure from current shill requirements.
- The expectations of ship owners and managers, and their appreciation of future changes in crew requirements that may be brought about by developments in the industry.
- A broad assessment of the ability of training institutions to respond to changes in skill needs, and their future planning to meet these needs, perhaps through the introduction of specialised modules.
- The impact of declining seafarer numbers on the operation of OECD fleets and skilled shore-based maritime functions.
Status
A report is currently being prepared by a consultant, and this should be available for consideration by the Committee at its January 2003 meeting.
Background
Empirical estimates for future gaps in supply and demand are undertaken by several agencies. For example, the ISF/BIMCO 2000 Manpower Update provides very useful and necessary information in defining the nature and magnitude of the problem. However, these empirical studies do not address factors that may affect the future demand and supply of seafarers, nor do they attempt to analyse how changing circumstances may affect future skill requirements. For example, while some effort is made to estimate the number of vessels that might constitute the future commercial fleet (and therefore by implication the number of officers and ratings required), the studies do not account for future developments in shipbuilding technology and ship management practices, which could impact on the demand and skill base of future crews. The OECD study will therefore examine the following elements:
- Factors affecting crew size
There have been considerable improvements in ship productivity over the last few decades, and crew size have fallen dramatically. Technological advances and ship management practices have also contributed greatly to this reduction, and more can be expected in the future. The project would therefore address the following factors which may allow smaller crew to achieve effective manning:
- future innovations in ship design and construction
- developments in engine room, communication and navigation technology, maintenance requirements and cargo handling equipment,
- developments and innovation in ship management and operational practices.
- Factors affecting crew skill base
The focus will be on how future developments in shipping will change the skill base and experience required by officers and ratings. For example, while basic seamanship remains a basic necessity, today's officers are already as much logistics and communications experts as they are sailors. These trends will become increasingly evident as technology and management techniques develop further
- The role of training institutions
In earlier times, it was possible (indeed normal) for prospective sailors to go to sea at a young age and with little education, and to learn their craft through long apprenticeships. This situation has now changed dramatically, and both ratings and officers need a much higher initial skill base, generally acquired from a maritime training institution. The basic training standard are set by the IMO's STCW Convention, and it is not the intention of this project to in any way cut across this well-established activity. The objective of this project will be to look further into the future to gauge what new skills may be necessary to operate and manage the ships of the future. These trends would be ascertained as already described through information sought from ship designers/builders and ship owners and managers. In respect of the training institutions, it is proposed to test a selected sample of institutions in respect of their preparedness to meet these training demands. It is expected that the matching of this information will provide a guide as to the general ability of training institutions to meet future training needs, as well as an indication of the direction of these changes
- Impacts on OECD requirements for seafarers
The ISF/BIMCO studies on seafarer supply and demand have provided some useful information on the current composition and supply and demand for merchant seafarers, and of their age profiles and regional composition.
The data points to an alarming increase in the age profiles of OECD seafarers, and to possible severe future shortages, and this is causing concern in many OECD administrations, as national seafarers, as well as crewing nationally flagged vessels, are traditionally also used as a recruitment ground for many of the essential shore-based maritime industries, and this seems to provide strong arguments for the retention of maritime clusters in the traditional maritime countries. For example, maritime pilots, port state control officers, maritime administrators, marine surveyors and harbour masters, amongst others, are generally drawn from the pool of national seafarers.
The loss of these skills could have profound economic and policy implications for OECD countries, and the consultant is asked to assess the extent and impact of the expected decline in numbers on both the operation of national shipping fleets and for shore-based maritime functions.
- The seafarers' perspective
Seafarers are in the front line of these new challenges, and it is important that their views and experiences are drawn into any discussion and analysis of future needs. This will be done by incorporating inputs from key seafarer institutions.
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