|
Weak international demand, continued retrenchment among households and needed fiscal consolidation has halted the recovery. Growth will start to pick up during 2012 as exports and household consumption recover, with further strengthening in 2013. Unemployment is rising and will reach 9% in 2013, while inflation is presently peaking as anticipated and is expected to fall below the 2% target in 2013 as temporary effects from VAT hikes and commodity prices wane. Monetary policy is supportive, with the Bank rate at 0.5% and quantitative easing being resumed. Further expansions of quantitative measures are warranted. The ambitious fiscal consolidation has bolstered credibility and helped maintain low bond yields, leaving room for automatic stabilisers to work fully to cushion the slowdown.
|
