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by Mr. Normand Lauzon, SWAC Director
Why not announce good news at the beginning of the year? The regional dimension of aid is being included in the peer reviews of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC). This is only a first step. We will continue to urge the international community to do more for regional co-operation. In these troubled times, it is vital to help developing countries to act together and strengthen their regional blocs.
Africa, just like the rest of the world, is entering 2009 amidst great incertitude. Ever since last October, there have been new forecasts each week; the word “forecast” seems to have lost its meaning. The IMF announced very weak global growth (+0.5%), the lowest forecast since 1945. The theory that the recession in the North would have little effect on the South’s growth has proven untrue. Worried looks are now turning towards Asia and Latin America where growth rates could be less than those of 2008.
West Africa will indeed have to deal with a drop in global demand for its export products (gas, bauxite, iron and cotton as well as cocoa, coffee, tropical fruits and wood. Gold could be the exception). The European and American recessions could lead to a reduction in tourism and emigrant remittances. Transport and ports could also see a decrease in their activities. Many large investments could be postponed due to the credit crunch and increased uncertainty. Employment and income (formal and informal) as well as state budgets shall also suffer. On the other hand, gas will undoubtedly be less expensive for consumers. We can also hope for relative respite from the rise in food product prices, but to what extent? All these components put together (as well as many others) will have an impact on societies and political changes. They will also have an effect on the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) between West Africa and the European Union which are supposed to be signed in June.
Faced with these uncertainties, the SWAC Secretariat is setting up a monitoring system. We will disseminate a quarterly analysis of the major political, social and economic trends occurring in the region within the international context. We will also continue to carry out structural analyse to promote regional action, notably in the field of food security, livestock rearing and resources for development as well as cross-border co-operation, migration, youth (combating child labour on cocoa plantations), conflict and governance.
Our new President, Mr. François Xavier de Donnea, will join us for this challenging year.
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