Security implications of climate change in the Sahel

Building on a network of climate science experts and specialised technical agencies, the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD) is co-ordinating a regional analysis on how climate change and climate variability are affecting one of Africa’s most vulnerable regions, the Sahel, and under what conditions and which interactions they can impact security. Based on past observations, current characteristics and climate projections, a series of vulnerability and risks maps are being developed as well as three scenarios for possible climate evolutions in the Sahel by 2040. Outcomes will contribute to raise awareness among key policy-makers on the potential security implications of climate change in the Sahel, identify mitigating policy actions, and define a regional road-map for action. > download the presentation sheet

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Over recent years climate change and its impacts on development and security have become a key concern for policy makers around the world. After decades in which technological innovation, human ingenuity and adaptation and international trade appeared to have overcome many traditional scarcities, the effects of climate change are posing new threats to sustainable growth and development. Africa is considered to be “one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of “multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC 2007).

For this analysis the Sahel has been defined as the region lying between 12°N and 20°N longitude, covering the semi-arid and arid climate zones. It covers all or parts of 12 countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea: Senegal, the Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti
This regional study is composed of three analytical modules:

• Dynamic analysis
• Cross-analysis and climate projections
• Medium-term scenarios

> Dynamic analysis

Retrospective analyses of climate and non-climate variables will help identify the region’s main long-term trends and structural transformations (climate and non-climate) and show where and how these changes have taken place, at what rate they occurred, their consequences, and how the region adapted. This will lead to a detailed spatial description of the region today, localising and explaining current features and stakes. An analysis of past security events (occurred between 1969 and 2007) will provide a short description of triggers, aggravating factors, general contexts and timeline of past security events.

> Cross-analysis and climate projections

A cross-analysis of climate and non-climate variables will identify linkages between climate structural changes and structural trends of demo-economic variables on the one hand, and climate change/variability and security events on the other hand. Qualitative and quantitative methods will be used to adequately capture the multidimensional nature of security. Based on past observations and current characteristics, vulnerability and risks maps will be produced. The aim is to define, characterise and localise zones of increased vulnerability.

> Medium-term scenarios

Using existing climate projections and vulnerability maps for the Sahel region, three scenarios for possible climate evolutions by 2040 will be developed, outlining different impact scenarios on non-climate variables and their conflict-linkages.

Security implications of climate change in the Sahel,  SWAC Regional study, presentation sheet, November 2009

Based on past observations, current characteristics and climate projections, a series of vulnerability and risks maps are being developed as well as three scenarios for possible climate evolutions in the Sahel by 2040.

Climate and climate change, Regional Atlas on West Africa, chapter 14, SWAC/OECD, West African Studies, January 2008.

Like all other world regions, Africa and West Africa must take up the challenge of climate change which is essentially that of vulnerability and uncertainty. Analyses of this region have remained inadequate and the conclusions arrived at by climate projections and their consequences are too uncertain for an effective anticipation of the risks and opportunities linked to climate change. Greater awareness and participation by local actors will also be necessary to formulate and implement these adaptation strategies.

Climate change in West Africa, Sahelian adaptation strategies, SWAC Briefing note, January 2009

While Africa produces less than 4% of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is considered the world’s most vulnerable region with regard to the effects of climate change due to the fragility of its economies. Like all other regions, West Africa must take-up this challenge – essentially that of vulnerability and uncertainty. In addition to the analysis of the climate change impacts and a presentation of some adaptation strategies developed by agricultural producers in the Sahel, this SWAC Briefing Note presents opportunities and makes recommendations for West African leaders and development partners on how to address West Africa’s climate change challenges.

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• OECD work on climate change: www.oecd.org/env/cc 
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