Composite Leading Indicators - Updated December 2002

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OECD Composite Leading Indicator rises slightly in October 2002: Increase in Japan and Germany

06/12/2002 - The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.1 point in October 2002 to 120.1 from 120 in September. However, its six-month rate of change has decreased for six consecutive months.

The CLI for the United States fell by 0.4 point in October. Its six-month rate of change has fallen for six consecutive months. The CLI for the Euro area rose in October but its six-month rate of change has fallen for five consecutive months. In October, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.5 point and its six-month rate of change has risen for two consecutive months.

The CLI for the United Kingdom dropped by 0.6 point in October. Its six-month rate of change has fallen for five consecutive months. The CLI for Canada was down by 0.6 point in October and its six-month rate of change has fallen for six consecutive months. The CLIs for France remained at the same level as the previous month and the CLI for Germany has risen for two consecutive months. However the six-month rates of change for both countries have fallen for six consecutive months. Finally, the CLI for Italy fell in October, as did its six-month rate of change.

Tables and Graphs

Note:

The OECD has updated the lists of turning points used in the calculation of the CLIs. As a result, the level of the CLI data has been modified. At the same time, some component series have been dropped or replaced, to improve the overall timeliness of the CLIs. Note that such an update for the Italian CLI was performed in 2001.

In addition, the CLI for the OECD area now covers 23 countries as a CLI for Turkey has recently been developed (see CLI Data page ).

Methodological Notes

For CLI data for the 23 countries including trend restored CLIs, annualised 6-month rates of change and reference series long-term rate as well as OECD methodology go to: CLI Data and Methodological Information.

Glossary

More on CLIs: http://www.oecd.org/std/cli

The next publication date of the OECD's CLI will be on 10 January 2003

For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org.

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