African Economic Outlook 2003/2004 - 22 Country Studies

Algeria 

• Favourable oil prices and public enterprise reform boosted growth in 2003, but the medium- term impact of the reforms on growth is uncertain.
• Dynamic private sector, especially in the energy sector.
• The start of a national political transition could be confirmed by the re-election of President Bouteflika.

Botswana

• Strong diamond output and prudent economic management are driving Botswana’s performance.
• Diversification policy away from diamonds is expected to play an important role in the medium term growth outlook.
• AIDS threatens progress. Population will decline to 1.3 million in 2015 compared to a non AIDS scenario of 2.5 million.

Burkina Faso

• The impact of the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire on the economic performance of Burkina Faso has been weaker than expected. 
• A robust primary sector owing to good rainfall and a dynamic cotton sector.
• Development of the gold sector: is it the start of a diversification of Burkina’s exports?

Cameroon

• Slowdown of growth since 2002 owing to loss of competitivity.
• Contraction of exports may create a risk of trade imbalance.
• Debt has been substantially reduced in the context of HIPC, thanks to sustained growth and repayments efforts

Côte d’Ivoire

• A long-term economic and social fallback is expected in the occupied zones after 4 years of crisis.
• Stable exports of cocoa and cotton.
• The October 2005 Presidential elections dominate political uncertainty.

• Poor growth performance affected by regional political instability.
• Suez canal revenue set a record in 2003, mainly because of the increase of military traffic.
• Unofficial depreciation due to partially flexible exchange rate system.

• Agricultural production has been severely affected by an exceptional drought in 2002/03.
• Dependence on external aid is likely to continue for the next years.
• Instability is still present, despite sustained democracy, due to internal pressure (rebel groups) as well as external ones (border fights with Eritrea).

Gabon  

• Slow growth is due to a progressive decline of petroleum output, despite an unexpected increase in oil production in 2003. 
• Diversification is necessary to fight the high incidence of poverty; however the forestry sector is in crisis for internal and external reasons. 
• External debt sharply reduced to contract a programme with the IMF: its percentage over GDP fell by 22 per cent from 1998-2002.

Ghana

• Very good agricultural sector performance improved the general economic situation.
• Structural reforms aiming to increase private sector participation continue.
• West African Gas Pipeline Project: it will allow the country to have access to Nigerian natural gas reserves.

• Growth performance well below potential owing to structural bottlenecks, slow pace of reforms, and problems of governance.
• An Economic Recovery Strategy launched in 2003 to stimulate growth.
• Increased financial flows from donors and better performance of the export sector in 2004.

• Peaceful presidential elections likely to improve climate for major development reforms.
• Dynamism of the primary sector despite the uncertainty over the cotton sector’s performance.
• Extreme fragility of fiscal and trade balance.

• Improved economic performance in 2003, but growth is highly dependent on weather, impacting on agricultural output, and on the international environment.
• A structural trade deficit, despite the encouraging export situation, reflects the poor competitiveness of the economy.
• Civil liberties and human rights have been boosted by a series of measures initiated by King Mohammed VI, including a new family code.

• Huge FDI feeds resurgent growth.
• Private sector investments are the principal motor of growth in the context of efforts to simplify regulations and restructure the banking system.
• Reduction in poverty from 69 per cent in 1997 to 54 per cent in 2002/03 ; primary enrolment up from 70 per cent in 1998 to 104 per cent in 2002.

Nigeria

• Oil dominates economy which lacks a coherent national energy policy.
• Upswing in 2003 real GDP growth due to upturn in the oil market.
• Peaceful transfer of power marked by the 2003 re-election of President Obasanjo.

Senegal

• Growth highly dependent on agriculture.  
• Aid and remittances crucial and boost consumption despite high unemployment and poverty. 
• Weak impact of the Ivorian crisis on the economy: slight increase of port activities; acceleration of tobacco, and oil products exports.

South Africa

• Budgetary discipline and contained inflation have not obviated the need to tackle major social challenges.
• Growth lost momentum in 2003 but will resume over the next two years.
• Social and HIV/AIDS spending improved but reluctance of parts of the government and uneven capacity among regions are serious impediments to concrete progress. 

Tanzania

• Growth outlook is positive but the country is highly dependent on foreign aid.
• Changes in the structure of exports (increase of non-traditional exports, such as mineral, fishery, and manufacturing) 
• Political stability has helped economic achievements and progress in reforms.

• Diversification and stability in the economy.
• Private investment slumped owing to tougher competitive conditions.
• Improved poverty reduction and increase in gross disposable income. 

Uganda

• Agricultural output fails to expand holding back GDP growth despite prudent fiscal and monetary management.
• Privatisation continues, although at a very slow pace.
• Political climate stable, but rebel activity threatens security.

• Good economic performance to 2005 owes more to luck than to good management, relying mainly on external factors than on a long-term development strategy.
• Needs of the poor neglected through government failures and poor governance.
• Diversification from copper and the removal of the obstacles to private sector development.

• Isolation has increased due to government’s unwillingness to address the huge economic and political crises.
• Agricultural production has shrunk due to lack of foreign currency for inputs, together with a complete credit crunch and insecurity of land tenure.
• Leaving the country has been the only option for 2.5 million Zimbabwean (about a quarter of the population) since the inception of the crisis.

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African Economic Outlook 2003/2004
Available in print (paperback) and electronic format (pdf)
450 pages, OECD, Paris 2004
OECD Code 412004041P1
ISBN 92-64-01624-4   
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