This study examines the dynamics of poverty for six OECD countries (Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States). It provides information on patterns of poverty, which groups stay in poverty the longest, and household/individual characteristics and life-course events which appear to be most closely associated with transitions into and out of poverty and the length of time individuals stay in poverty. The analysis finds that the number of people touched by poverty over a six year period is significantly larger that the poverty rate might suggest, but the share of those staying poor for a long time is much smaller. The data suggest that longer-term poor are concentrated among women, lone parents and older single individuals. The study finds that employment status is the main factor affecting transitions into and out of poverty and the duration of poverty.
Zeynep Or
This paper investigates inequalities in health outcomes across industrialised countries using a comprehensive set of data and indicators. A health production function is developed in order to determine the relative contribution of an array of medical and non-medical factors to health outcomes. Fixed-effect models are estimated, using aggregate data in 21 OECD countries for the period 1970-1992. Health outcomes are approximated by potential years of life lost (PYLL) as a summary indicator of premature mortality rather than conventional mortality rates. The results indicate the importance of environmental factors, especially socio-economic variables and life-style factors, for health outcomes in developed countries. Contrary to the results of most previous work, a positive impact of medical expenditure on health is also identified, particularly for women.
John P. Martin
This paper addresses the question: what is the potential contribution which active labour market policies can make as part of a strategy to combat high and persistent unemployment? To answer this question, it is vital to know what works among active policies and in what circumstances. The second section provides some factual background on public spending on labour market policies in OECD countries over the past decade. The third section reviews the recent literature on the evaluation of active policies, while the fourth section discusses the interactions between active and passive labour market policies based on indepth reviews in 16 OECD countries.
Thomas Dalsgaard and Alain de Serres
This paper estimates the levels of government budget balances in 11 EU countries that would prevent the deficit from exceeding the 3 per cent of GDP limit stipulated by the Stability and Growth Pact. A structural VAR model is estimated for each country in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent disturbances. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are carried out to derive estimates of the cyclically adjusted balances necessary for the actual deficits to comply with the threshold with different levels of confidence and over various time horizons. The results suggest that for most countries, a cyclically adjusted budget deficit of around 1-1.5 per cent of GDP would suffice to keep the actual deficit within the threshold with a likelihood of 90 per cent and over a three-year horizon. Considering longer time horizons, a cyclically adjusted balanced budget would appear to be prudent for most countries.
Stéphane Jacobzone, Emmanuelle Cambois and Jean-Marie Robine
This paper extends the examination of trends in disability among the elderly for a set of OECD countries for which consistent information is available over time. There appears to be a significant fall in severe disability rates, especially in private households. The data on disability rates are combined with population projections to yield projections of the numbers of disabled elderly persons over the period up to 2020. The paper compares a projection assuming that recent trends in disability rates persist over the projected period and another assuming stable rates of disability. While health improvements of older populations are an important factor in terms of welfare, they have mixed effects on public finances. It appears that de-institutionalisation, with increased recourse to community care, plays a larger role than disability trends in terms of public finances.
Willem Adema
This brief note updates indicators on net social spending which provide a more comparable view of social benefits across countries (see Economic Studies No. 28). The note describes the effects of adjusting standard data on budgetary allocations for social purposes by accounting for taxation of cash transfers, indirect taxation of consumption out of benefits and tax breaks for social purposes. The country coverage is expanded to cover thirteen countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States, while the notion of social spending has been enriched to also cover voluntary social spending by the private sector. Considering social spending within such a comprehensive framework leads to a marked convergence of social expenditure levels across countries.
