Aid predictability

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The current lack of transparency and predictability of aid have been recognized as key bottlenecks in making aid more effective. Recent studies indicate that the value of aid is reduced by 15-20% when it is unpredictable and volatile. For developing countries, uncertainty about future resources complicates decision making on resource allocations and can stand in the way of longer-term programmes and reforms. For donors, lack of predictable and transparent aid makes it harder to harmonise efforts and achieve enduring development results.

To help efforts toward greater predictability and transparency, we conduct annual surveys of donors' spending plans for the following years - the only regular process at the global level to do so. The responses are consolidated in our annual report on aid predictability. The Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans is a unique instrument as it is the only regular process at the global level that brings together most bilateral and multilateral aid spending plans - up to three years ahead.


	2011 OECD DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2011-2013 (pdf, 1.93 MB) Tracing country programmable aid (CPA) flows, this annual survey on donors' forward spending plans aims to reduce some of the uncertainty around aid at the global, regional and country level. The 2011 edition presents the main survey results as well as the main findings from the two pilot studies conducted in 2011 on how to further enhance the survey by collecting more disaggregated forward-looking data and increase its relevance for partner countries.
	2010 OECD DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2010-2012 (pdf, 1.61 MB) This report is a unique instrument: the only regular process at the global level that brings together most bilateral and multilateral aid spending plans 1-3 years ahead with the aim of improving global predictability of future aid flows. The 2010 survey is the third survey in this series. The 2010 edition of the survey report provides an assessment of indicative forward programming to countries that need it the most in order to reach the MDGs by providing a first indication of the collective forward programming of bilateral and major multilateral donors’ up to 2012, mid-way to 2015. The international development community faces the challenges of aid prospects and needs through 2015, as ODA is a necessary and complementary source of finance for development to reach the MDGs. The report is intended both for policy makers in recipient countries as a guide to overall planning of aid resources and for aid managers in donor countries and international agencies to inform their aid allocation decisions.
	2009 DAC Report on Aid Predictability: Survey on Donors’ Forward Spending Plans 2009-2011 (pdf, 4.15 MB) The 2009 report presents the results of the second complete survey in the series. It identifies potential gaps, overlaps and opportunities for future aid allocations for all 153 DAC aid recipient countries. It is intended both for policy makers in recipient countries as a guide to overall planning of aid resources and for aid managers in donor countries and international agencies to inform their aid allocation decisions. The Survey suggests that planned increases in aid still fall short of the required increases needed to meet the global aid commitments, in particular for Africa, and that exceptional measures need to be taken by donors to rebalance the current programmed allocations.

	Report of 2008 Survey of Aid Allocation Policies and Indicative Forward Spending Plans (pdf, 1.49 MB) > Summary of the report (pdf, 406 KB) > Download fragmentation data from the report (xls,151 KB) It is nearly three years since DAC members announced renewed commitments to increase ODA to coincide with the Millennium+5 Summit in New York. As part of monitoring the delivery of these commitments, the DAC conducted late 2007 and early 2008 its first full annual Survey on Aid Allocation Policies and Indicative Forward Spending Plans. The Survey report is a key stimulus to improving medium term predictability of aid. The Survey shows that most donors operate multi-year programming frameworks, allowing for predictability of aid.The analysis on existing fragmentation of aid provides essential background information to review global aid allocation decisions and to take forward action on improving division of labour between donors.