OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series

The following pages give: (1) the chronology of turning points in the reference series for regional/zone area aggregates and individual countries and (2) the list of components series for each individual country CLI.

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series  are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e CLIs and IIPs).

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turing point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) 

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behaviour; data quality; timeliness and availability.

The OECD-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.

The OECD + Non-member economies covers the following 35 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States .

The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States.

The Euro area covers the Europe 16 area excluding Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom.

The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States.

The Major 5 Asia countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.