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The following pages give: (1) the chronology of reference turning points for regional/zone area aggregates and individual countries where the CLI has been recently revised and (2) the list of components series for each individual country CLI. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach where cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend or ratio-to-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.
Zones aggregates are calculated based on country weighted IIP. The turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are the fixed chronologies used in the compilation of the trend-restored country CLIs. They are determined mainly by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) procedure.
The component series are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized component series in either their seasonally adjusted or raw form. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behaviour; data quality; timeliness and availability, etc.
The OECD-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.
The OECD + Non-member economies covers the following 35 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States .
The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States.
The Europe Total area covers the following 22 countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom.
The Europe 15 area covers the following 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
The Euro area covers the Europe 15 area excluding Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom.
The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States.
The Major 5 Asia countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
The OECD Eastern Europe (Visegrad 4) area covers the following 4 countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic.
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Predicting the Business Cycle: How good are early estimates of OECD Composite Leading Indicators?
