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The OECD Agricultural Outlook provides a medium term assessment of future trends and prospects in the major agricultural commodity markets of OECD countries. The report is published annually, as part of a continuing effort to promote informed discussion of emerging policy issues (free Highlights). This tenth edition of the OECD Agricultural Outlook, 2004-2013 is set against the background of a world economy that is on the path to economic recovery, and where OECD agricultural policy is being influenced by changes taking place in the European Union with the 2003 reform of the CAP and enlargement of the Union as well as the multi-year provisions of the US Farm Act of 2002. The Outlook for agricultural markets is for a gradual strengthening in market conditions for all commodities over the period to 2013. Stronger global economic growth is expected to lead to increased consumption and trade and firmer agricultural product prices in nominal terms. But these outcomes are highly conditional on the geopolitical and global economic situation, as well as a continuation of domestic policies and policy settings, particularly in OECD countries. A restart of the stalled Doha round of multilateral trade discussions in the WTO and their successful conclusion in terms of further trade reform, would strengthen the prospects for agricultural markets beyond that contained in this assessment which is based on only a continuation of existing policy reforms and URAA commitments.

The projections to 2013, presented in the Outlook, constitute a plausible medium–term future for the markets of key commodities. They are the result of close co–operation between the OECD Secretariat and experts in member countries, and some national co-operators in non-member economies (NMES), and hence, reflect their combined knowledge and expertise. This year’s report takes account of the enlargement of the European Union, from fifteen to twenty-five countries, from 2004. The commodity projections are based on a number of assumptions relating to current or announced agricultural and trade policies in OECD countries, the outcome of the URAA multilateral trade negotiations in the WTO, the underlying macro–economic environment and its expected evolution, as well as developments in major NMEs. The OECD’s Aglink model is used to guarantee internal consistency in the projections. In addition, the model is employed to generate scenarios around the Outlook baseline so that sources of uncertainty in relation to key assumptions and selected policy issues can be analysed. Thus, the report includes – inter alia – an assessment of the market impacts of the 2003 CAP reform in the European Union, an evaluation of the implications for oilseed markets of different rates of growth in Brazilian oilseed production, the potential market implications of a rundown in the huge level of grain stocks held by China and the possible interaction between milk quotas and other instruments to achieve specific milk policy objectives. It also presents results of ongoing work on the introduction of stochastic elements in the baseline generation. Finally, the report includes a background section on the Indian agricultural sector covering the evolution of the main agricultural industries, policy settings, world trade integration and trade prospects. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data, projections and selected scenario results, will be available through the OECD internet site.

This publication is prepared by the Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries of the OECD with the active participation of all member countries. The policy assessments provided in this report is supported and extended by another annual report prepared by the Directorate: Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries: At a Glance, Edition 2004.

The OECD Agricultural Outlook is published under the responsibility of the Secretary– General of the OECD. The views expressed and conclusions reached in this report do not necessarily correspond to those of the governments of OECD member countries.

No. pages: 180

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