Workshop: Global convergence scenarios

Summary  ׀  Agenda  ׀  Background papers

Global convergence scenarios: structural and policy issues
OECD, Paris, 16 January 2006
Salle des Nations, Tour Europe, La Defense

Global modelling exercises, such as projecting world GHG emissions require assumptions about economic convergence across regions.  These convergence scenarios, however, are often produced on a rather ad-hoc basis. Notably, they are often derived from exogenous population and labour productivity assumptions that may not be internally coherent in terms of the structural feedback mechanisms and policies needed to support a given convergence path. Against this background, this workshop will aim at tackling two main issues:

(i) Given the current knowledge about long-run growth, what are the main structural feedback mechanisms related to production factors, technology diffusion and relative prices, acting on a given convergence scenario?
(ii) What are the policies supporting economic convergence and does growth induce institutional change?

The workshop discussions could provide a timely input for ongoing work on global scenarios currently carried in international institutions and academic research. The one-day workshop will be split in three sessions and a panel discussion. Several well-known scholars will act as lead-speakers in order to give a state-of-the-art overview of the literature. Country experts will also provide their views on regional convergence prospects. The Secretariat will provide a background note summarising structural and policy issues related to long-term growth and convergence.

AGENDA

9:15 Structural and policy issues surrounding long-term projections

Background note
Giuseppe Nicoletti and Joaquim Oliveira Martins (OECD/ECO)

9:30-13h00 Structural feed-back mechanisms supporting convergence

Long-run growth and Technology
Philippe Aghion, Harvard University
Growth, Labour markets and migration
Tito Boeri, Bocconi University
Discussants: Sébastien Jean, (OECD/ECO), Dirk Pilat (OECD/STI)

Long-run growth and International saving flows
Claude Bismut, University Montpellier-I
Convergence, PPPs and global modelling
Warwick Mckibbin, Australian National University, Lowy Institute and The Brookings Institution
Convergence scenarios: an overview
Jonathan Temple, University of Bristol
Discussants: Philip Bagnoli (OECD/ENV), Paul Schreyer (OECD/STD)

14:30 Policies, institutions and convergence

To grow or not to grow: Why institutions must make a difference
Thorvaldur Gylfason, University of Iceland
What policies could sustain convergence of less developed regions? 
Jorge Braga de Macedo, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Daniel Cohen, Ecole Normale Superieure and OECD Development Centre
Discussants: Jorgen Elmeskov (OECD/ECO), Javier Santiso (OECD/DEV)

16:30 Regional perspectives: Brazil, China and Russia

On the basis of the workshop presentations and discussants, three country experts will give their views on long-term growth prospects for major emerging markets.

Brazil’s growth: What went wrong? What to expect now?  Luiz de Mello (OECD/ECO)
China: How rapid a convergence? Richard Herd (OECD/ECO)
Russia: Possible Russian Development Paths  Bill Tompson (OECD/ECO)

17:00 Panel discussion: policy conclusions for OECD countries

Chair: Jean-Philippe Cotis (Chief Economist, OECD)
Panelists: Graeme Davis (Australia), Benoit Robidoux (Canada) and Jean-Luc Schneider (France)

This workshop is by invitation only.  For information please contact Mrs. Irene Sinha
Email: irene.sinha@oecd.org, Tel: +33 1 45 24 90 42;

See the full agenda

Directions to Tour Europe

Useful background papers:
Aghion, P. and Howitt, P (2005) Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework
Bagnoli, P. et al. (2006) Structural change and PPP measures of Income
Bagnoli, P. (2006) Structural feed-back mechanisms supporting convergence: Some observations
Bismut, C. (2006) Long-Run Growth and International Saving Flows
Causa, O. and Cohen, D. (2005) Overcoming Barriers to Low Productivity - Policy Insight
Elmeskov, J. (2005) Policies, institutions and convergence
McKibbin, W.J. and Stegman, A. (2005) Convergence and Per Capita Carbon Emissions
McKibbin, W.J. et al. (2004) Long Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios
Santiso, J. (2006) Catching up and falling down, a Latin American perspective