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The OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Expert Group (STESEG) meeting will be held at OECD headquarters, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris 75016, on Thursday 10 and Friday 11 September 2009.
In line with OECD policy to reduce paper consumption, delegates are invited to download the papers from this website; papers will not be available in the meeting room.
Draft Agenda
Thursday 10 September
10.00 – 10.20 Welcome and introduction
Marco Mira d'Ercole, Counsellor, Statistics Directorate, OECD
10.20 – 12.00 Session I
Short-term economic statistics and the current crisis
The International Perspective
Chair – Alfredo Leone, International Monetary Fund
Since the financial crisis first emerged there have been questions asked about how statistics can help or could have helped. A task-force, led by the IMF (Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics), has been established to improve the availability of timely and relevant financial and economic indicators. This group recently produced the following website: http://principalglobalindicators.org Proposals emerging from this task-force and other international initiatives will be discussed.
Background and introduction to topic
Alfredo Leone, International Monetary Fund
The current economic crisis: statistical initiatives of the E(S)CB
Daniela Schackis, ECB ppt presentation
Macroeconomic statistics and the current crisis:
Challenges ahead and statistical initiatives at the IMF
Alfredo Leone, International Monetary Fund ppt presentation
The OECD Perspective
David Brackfield, OECD ppt presentation
Discussion
12.00 – 14.00 Lunch
14.00 – 16.20 Session II
Short-term economic statistics and the current crisis
A national statistics office perspective
Chair – Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT
A situation like the financial crisis raises questions for National Statistics Offices in the basic compilation and dissemination of short-term economic statistics. What should a NSO do in regards to seasonal adjustment outliers, enterprise deaths mid-sample, mergers, the entry of the government into the market etc? This session will discuss these issues and allow NSOs an opportunity to learn from each other and if successful this could lead to a more consistent response to the challenges that the crisis has generated.
Background and introduction to topic
Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT
Statistical methods in a rapid recession
Derek Bird, United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) ppt presentation
Financial crisis policy responses in the US national accounts
Dennis Fixler, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ppt presentation
Measuring US industrial production during a downturn in economic activity
John J Stevens, US Federal Reserve Board ppt presentation
When it's not business as usual
Michael Smedes, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ppt presentation
The Italian housing market in the crisis: fresh evidence
Francesco Zollino, Bank of Italy ppt presentation
Discussion
16.20 – 16.40 Coffee Break
16.40 – 17.40 Session III
Implementation of new international classifications into short-term economic statistics
Chair – Brain Newson, Eurostat
The 2009 year has seen most of the international classification standards updated, for example ISIC rev 3.1 to rev 4 and NACE rev 1.1 to rev 2. The European Union has implemented a program of how the new standards will be introduced into short-term economic statistics. There are still a number of discussions (e.g. backcasting) that could take place about what impact these will have on the subject areas. In addition there is also scope for countries outside the EU to outline how and when they expect to make the change and their initial thinking.
Introduction
Brian Newson, Eurostat ppt presentation
Implementation of NACE rev. 2 in short-term economic statistics: what did we do in practice?
Leendert Hoven, Statistics Netherlands background paper ppt presentation
Calculation of STS-indicators in industries and construction according to NACE Rev. 2
Monika Brunauer, Statistics Austria ppt presentation
Discussion
17.40 – 19.00 OECD STESEG Cocktail, Salle Marshall
Friday 11 September
9.30 – 11.20 Session IV
The use of administrative data in improving short-term statistics estimates
Chair – Søren Kristensen, Statistics Denmark
NSOs are always faced with the need to reduce respondent load while at the same time becoming more efficient. A clear way forward is the increased use of administrative data. While this is a subject that the group has been involved with in the past, there is more scope for countries to discuss new methods, with a possible focus in the area of short-term service statistics. There is also a possibility of re-establishing the taskforce to update and revamp the existing frameworks as a number of conferences/workshops have taken place in the last few years.
Opening remarks
Søren Kristensen, Statistics Denmark ppt presentation
Use of administrative data in sub-annual statistics – how far can we go?
Kathy Connolly, Statistics New Zealand ppt presentation
“Why collect the same information twice?”
Exploring the possibilities of using VAT data in the estimation of the Danish IIP
Søren Kristensen, Statistics Denmark ppt presentation
Use of administrative data in short-term statistics for the service sector
Daniel Lennartsson, Statistics Sweden ppt presentation
Credit-card purchases as a short-term indicator
Yoel Finkel, Central Bureau of Statistics Israel ppt presentation
Preparing for changes in administrative data for short-term statistics
Ville Koskinen, Statistics Finland ppt presentation
Discussion
11.20 – 11.40 Coffee Break
11.40 – 12.00 Session V
Development of short-term business demography statistics
Chair – Jiemin Guo, OECD
The OECD has recently developed a number of business demography indicators (such as entry, exit and survival rates) as part of its Entrepreneurship Indicators Programme. Most of these indicators are only available 2 to 3 years after the period to which they refer; making them less than ideal when it comes to assessing policies or events in real-time (like the current crisis). Timelier sources, namely Labour Force Surveys (LFS), are available that could provide more up-to-date indicators of business demography. See:
STD/CSTAT/STESWP(2008)5
Short-term indicators of business dynamics: entry, exit and survival rates
Koen de Backer, OECD ppt presentation
12.00 – 12.30 Session VI
National Presentations
Chair – David Brackfield, OECD
Benchmarking official data in Mexico
Adriana Jimenez-Pineda, INEGI Mexico ppt presentation
Construction of the index of industrial production in India
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India ppt presentation
News versus noise: revision analysis
Denis Fixler: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ppt presentation
12.03 – 14.00 Lunch
14.00 –? Session VII
STESEG – Where to from here
Chair – David Brackfield, OECD
A summary of the meeting and a discussion on the future of the group with input from the delegates.
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