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Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) - Updated January 2003

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The OECD Composite Leading Indicator rises slightly in November 2002 but its 6 month rate of change continues to fall.

10/01/2003 - The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.3 point in November 2002 to 120.1 from 119.8 in October. However, its six-month rate of change has decreased for seven consecutive months.

The CLI for the United States rose by 0.6 point in November and its six-month rate of change rose as well after six consecutive months of decrease. The CLI for the Euro area was unchanged in November but its six-month rate of change has fallen for six consecutive months. In November, the CLI for Japan went down by 0.2 point and its six-month rate of change has fallen since May 2002.

The CLI for the United Kingdom dropped by 0.3 point in November and its six-month rate of change has fallen since June 2002. The CLI for Canada went up by 1 point in November but its six-month rate of change was almost flat after six months of consecutive decreases. The CLI for France increased in November 2002, as did its six-month rate of change after five months of consecutive decreases. The CLI for Germany has risen for three consecutive months but its six-month rate of change has fallen for six consecutive months. Finally, the CLI for Italy fell in November, as did its six-month rate of change.

Tables and Graphs

Note:

In December 2002, the OECD updated the lists of turning points used in the calculation of the CLIs. At the same time, some component series have been dropped or replaced, to improve the overall timeliness of the CLIs. Note that such an update for the Italian CLI was performed in 2001.

In addition, the CLI for the OECD area now covers 23 countries as a CLI for Turkey has recently been developed (seeCLI Data page ).

Methodological Notes

Go to CLI Data and Methodological Information for CLI data for the 23 countries including trend restored CLIs, annualised 6-month rates of change and reference series long-term rate as well as OECD methodology.

Glossary

More on CLIs: http://www.oecd.org/std/cli

The next publication date of the OECD's CLI will be on 7 February 2003.

For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org.
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